Morgan Stanley marginally raises 2014 GDP forecast to 5.2%

The global financial services firm in its report lowered retail inflation forecast for 2014 to 7.6% from the earlier 8.2%

Forecasting a marginal improvement in India's economy, Morgan Stanley has revised the growth projection for 2014 to 5.2% from 5.1% earlier.

"We did ... Fine-tune India's 2014 growth estimate from 5.1% to 5.2%," Morgan Stanley said in its research report titled Asia Pacific Economics Spring Outlook.

It also lowered retail inflation forecast for 2014 to 7.6% from the earlier 8.2%.

The report said in the recent months policy makers as well as the private sector have made some efforts to improve productivity.

The government, it said, "has started to initiate policy steps to improve the business environment, such as allowing periodic diesel price hikes, setting up the Cabinet Committee of Investment to expedite approvals of large projects, notifying of natural gas price policy, and liberalising FDI limits".

In the October-December quarter, India's economy grew below expectations at 4.7% on falling output in the manufacturing sector.

Growth in the first nine months (April-December) was 4.6%.

The economy must expand by 5.7% in January-March to achieve estimated GDP expansion of 4.9% in 2013-14.

As per data, in February retail inflation fell to a 25-month low of 8.1%, while wholesale price-based inflation stood at 4.68% -- a 9 month low level.

Referring to external sector, Morgan Stanley said the current account deficit (CAD) has narrowed substantially from 6.5% in October-December of 2012 to 0.9% of quarter ending December 2013.

"A part of this improvement in the CAD reflects the decline in gold imports due to quantitative controls," it said.