Oil climbs before 'Doha brouhaha'

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AFP London
Last Updated : Apr 15 2016 | 9:32 PM IST
Oil rallied this week as traders eyed a possible output freeze deal aimed at stemming fresh price losses at an impending producers' meeting in Doha on Sunday.
Heading into the weekend, however, the market stumbled today as caution prevailed before the gathering, with sentiment hit also by poor Chinese data.
"The Doha meeting does not materially change the oil market balances but makes official what is already meant to happen," wrote Barclays analyst Michael Cohen in a research note entitled 'The brouhaha in Doha'.
"If recent supply-side ... Support holds, and the market's expectations for a credible statement and commitment are met, the meeting could help prevent prices from falling back to the low USD 30 range."
Major producers are meeting to try to negotiate an output freeze to drain crude oversupply -- but doubts remain over whether Iran will join any accord.
Analysts are unclear on the expected outcome of the meeting of around a dozen oil exporters, including heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, which could potentially send the market soaring or crashing.
Complicating prospects of a deal, OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has insisted it will not join an output freeze unless its regional rival Iran does so.
In a surprise twist on Friday, Tehran announced that oil minister Bijan Zanganeh will not join the talks -- which will instead be attended by the Islamic republic's OPEC representative.
Iran, which is emerging from nuclear-related Western sanctions, is expected to seek a waiver until its production reaches its pre-embargo levels.
Doha is a follow-up to talks in February between OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela plus Russia in which they first mooted the output freeze.
The market had nosedived from above USD 100 in mid-2014 to 13-year lows of around USD 27 in February, costing exporters billions of dollars in lost revenue. Prices have since rebounded to about USD 40.
The collapse was triggered by a stubborn global supply glut that was worsened by a sharp rise in unconventional oil production, mainly booming US shale crude, alongside OPEC's reluctance to cut output.
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First Published: Apr 15 2016 | 9:32 PM IST

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