Repression risks fuelling Egypt instability, analysts warn

Egypt is reeling after a tense weekend of sparse anti-government protests for the second week in a row, which analysts say could bring more repression under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Despite a heavy security presence in the capital, small-scale protests erupted in Cairo's Warraq island district after Friday prayers and in southern Egypt.

But the crowds were much thinner than the week before, when viral videos by an exiled disgruntled businessman accusing Sisi and the military of deep-seated corruption tapped into simmering discontent at people's economic woes.

"I doubt the Sisi administration is in any serious trouble, even if the protests show that high levels of repression have not been sufficient to deter open dissent," said Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

Yet he cautioned that current uncertainty is riddled with challenges for Sisi.

"The real problem for the administration ... is that it has emptied the political arena so completely of interlocutors (such as political parties or business groups) that it lacks social allies outside the state apparatus," he told AFP.

"This makes it brittle. Its dependence on repression will produce diminishing returns over time, as Egypt's social problems worsen," he added.

Following the first wave of protests on September 20, Sisi -- who has already overseen a crackdown since the start of his rule in 2013 -- moved quickly to quash dissent.

Around 2,000 people were rounded up in just seven days.

"The unprecedented wave of arrests of activists, intellectuals, and also ordinary protesters... made a lot of people re-think what might happen to them if they did participate," said Youssef El-Chazli, a fellow at Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies.

Calls for a "million-march" on Friday from the businessman and actor Mohamed Aly failed to materialise on the ground.

Egyptian social media -- an active virtual turf war between Sisi detractors and supporters, has gone back to focusing on soccer and other mundane topics.

Cairo's Tahrir Square, the flashpoint of the 2011 revolution, has returned to its ordinary, hectic pace with traffic milling around.

But a police presence is visible throughout the capital.

As the crackdown continued, AFP journalists on Friday saw police stopping and frisking citizens randomly, detaining some, searching phones and impounding vehicles.

The state has learned since 2011 that any group or protest can pose a threat and should be monitored, Chazli said.

"Obviously, this doesn't bode necessarily well for the future of democratic development and protection of civil and political rights in the country."
"It was important to have people in the street supporting the president, in bigger numbers than those protesting him."