S&P cuts India growth forecast to 1.8 pc

S&P Global Ratings on Friday slashed India growth forecast for the current fiscal to 1.8 per cent, from 3.5 per cent estimated earlier, on account of the lockdown to contain Covid-19 pandemic.

The US-based rating agency expects growth to significantly recover to 7.5 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal.

S&P had in March cut India growth forecast to 3.5 per cent for 2020-21 fiscal, from 5.2 per cent projected earlier.

"We assume that the first-wave of community transmission peaked in March in China and will peak in April for most other economies in the region. In some emerging markets, including India and Indonesia, a peak in reported cases is assumed to come somewhat later, perhaps early in the third quarter," S&P said.

S&P revised Asia-Pacific growth in 2020 to 0.3 per cent with China at 1.2 per cent, India at 1.8 per cent, and Japan at -3.6 per cent.

The agency assumes the recovery from the pandemic to be "flattish U-shape with activity returning to pre-outbreak levels, if at all, in 2023. If unemployment surges, we may be facing an elongated L-shape, it added.

S&P joins the other international agencies in cutting India growth forecast over the concerns about the fallout of COVID-19 pandemic.

Fitch has projected India's GDP to grow at 2 per cent this fiscal--the slowest since the economy was liberalised 30 years back.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed India's GDP growth projection to 1.9 per cent in 2020 from 5.8 per cent estimated in January, as the global economy hits the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s due to the raging coronavirus pandemic.

Similarly, World Bank has estimated India's economy to grow between 1.5 to 2.8 per cent in the 2020-21 - theworst growth performance since the 1991.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees India's economic growth slipping to 4 per cent in the current fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021), while S&P Global Ratings has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the country to 3.5 per cent.

Moody's Investors Service has also slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent.

These growth estimates compare to an estimated 5 per cent growth rate in 2019-20 fiscal that ended on March 31. Indian economy also grew by 5 per cent in 2019 calendar year.