Tibet struggle's slow slide off the global radar as Dalai Lama ages

Sixty years after the Dalai Lama fled into permanent Indian exile, the cause of Tibetan freedom that earned him a Nobel prize and a celebrity-studded international following has lost much of its momentum -- neutralised, analysts say, by the passage of time and China's rising global power.

Inside Tibet, Beijing has effectively wiped out any organised opposition to its iron-clad rule, while outside, the once-vocal support of sympathetic governments and world leaders has dwindled to near-silence in recent years despite the 14th Dalai Lama's enduring personal popularity.

"The fate of Tibet is in the hands of the Chinese state... Tibetans outside the region are not very relevant to the fate of Tibet, and this includes the Dalai Lama", said Nathan Hill, convener of Tibetan studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London.

In 2007, the Buddhist spiritual leader said his homeland was facing its "darkest period in 2,000 years". The following year, with the world's eyes on China in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics, protests unfurled across Tibet, sparking a furious response from Beijing.

"You don't see protests like that anymore," said Kate Saunders of the US-based International Campaign for Tibet, attributing the shift in part to Tibetans abiding by the Dalai Lama's message of non-violence and to massive Chinese state surveillance.

Although the Dalai Lama's campaign largely focused on autonomy rather than independence, negotiations with China stalled in 2010, amid suspicion that Beijing was intentionally dragging on pointless talks, hoping international pressure would ease with his eventual death.

The 83-year-old has sought to pre-empt any attempt by Beijing to name his reincarnated successor, even announcing in 2011 that he may be the last in the lineage.

The officially atheist Communist Party has already shown it will intervene in the reincarnation of important figures in Tibetan Buddhism, such as the Panchen Lama who traditionally plays a significant role in choosing the Dalai Lama's successor.

The boy chosen by the Dalai Lama to serve as the Panchen Lama was detained by Chinese authorities at the age of six and has not been seen since, with Beijing appointing its own candidate in 1995.

Although the exiled leader remains a hugely popular speaker, he has cut back on his global engagements and has not met a world leader since 2016 -- while governments have been wary of extending invitations to him for fear of angering
"Previous protests from the 1980s on... have yielded no tangible benefits, rather they have generated a worse political outcome and further clampdown."