US economists expect recession in 2020 or 2021: survey

A majority of economists expect a US recession in the next two years, but have pushed back the onset amid Federal Reserve actions, according to a survey released Monday.

The survey came out after President Donald Trump pushed back against talk of a looming recession as a raft of US data reports last week showed a mixed picture on the economy.

"I'm prepared for everything. I don't think we're having a recession. We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich," Trump told reporters Sunday.

"I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they're loaded up with money. They're buying. I saw the Wal-Mart numbers, they were through the roof," he said.

"And most economists actually say that we're not going to have a recession. But the rest of the world is not doing well like we're doing."
As Trump continues his vocal campaign criticizing the Fed, the NABE survey found economists are concerned about the impact: 55 per cent said his remarks do not influence Fed decisions but do "compromise the public's trust in the central bank."
And over a quarter of respondents said the criticism will "cause the Fed to be more dovish than otherwise, thus threatening its independence."