V-shaped or U-shaped? Some economists upbeat on virus recovery

The coronavirus pandemic has hit like a worldwide hurricane, shutting activity in most economies simultaneously, but some forecasters are more optimistic about the prospects for recovery once the worst has past.

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva has called it the worst crisis since the Great Depression a century ago, and warned the damage could linger.

And yet there are private economists betting on a solid rebound as soon as people can get back to work.

With 1.5 million confirmed cases and 100,000 deaths, the virus has forced economies worldwide to shut down, which in the United States caused 17 million workers to lose their jobs in just three weeks.

Economists at the New York Federal Reserve Bank said the impact is more akin to a natural disaster like a hurricane, rather than a traditional financial or economic crisis.

"Recessions typically develop gradually over time," researchers Jason Bram and Richard Dietz said in a blog post Friday.

"The coronavirus pandemic, in contrast, came on suddenly, hitting the economy at full force in one month."
But unlike a natural disaster, the authors said the pandemic has not left physical destruction in its wake, "which may well facilitate a quicker economic recovery."