Will IMD's forecast of 'above normal' rainfall fall flat?

With nearly 15 days left for the Monsoon to end officially and deficiency reaching 5 per cent, the forecast of "above normal" rainfall by India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to fall flat.
Although 86 per cent of the country has received "normal" and "above normal" rainfall, the figure may go down when withdrawal of the southwest monsoon will begin this week.
The IMD had forecast "above normal" rainfall in the country. The current overall deficiency in the country is 5 per cent.
IMD Director General K J Ramesh, however, declined to comment on the issue saying an assessment could be made only after September 30.

Last month, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency had lowered its forecast from "above normal" to "normal". But the IMD had refused to make an amends in its forecast.
Last year's monsoon was hit by El Nino. It was expected that there will be a gradual transition to La Nina phenomenon, but that has not taken place and current phase could be described as neutral.
The La Nina, which was expected to help monsoon, and give "excess" rains in September is yet to start.