Corrected: Canadian dollar to rally; trade deal clips economic worry - Reuters poll

Image
Reuters
Last Updated : Oct 04 2018 | 7:25 PM IST

(Corrects paragraph three to say currency would nudge up, not dip)

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar will rally over the coming year, according to currency strategists in a Reuters poll who raised their forecasts for the currency as a deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement reduced economic uncertainty.

The loonie has rallied as much as 2.3 percent against the U.S. dollar since last Thursday, helped by a last-minute deal to salvage NAFTA. On Monday, it touched its strongest in more than four months at C$1.2783.

The latest poll of more than 50 market strategists predicted the currency would nudge up to C$1.2800 to the greenback, or 78.13 U.S. cents, in three months, from the C$1.2878 it was trading around on Thursday.

The currency is then expected to climb to C$1.2500 in a year, stronger than the C$1.2600 forecast in September's poll.

"We are looking for the Canadian dollar to strengthen over the next 12 months," said Eric Theoret, a currency strategist at Scotiabank.

Removing the threat of tariffs on autos clears "a huge cloud of uncertainty" for the economy and could give businesses the confidence to invest in new assets, Theoret said.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian autos if a trade deal was not reached. The Bank of Canada forecast in July that trade uncertainty could subtract about two-thirds of a percent from gross domestic product by the end of 2020.

With the trade deal clinched, investors have raised bets for as many as four additional interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada by the end of 2019.

"We now have the Bank of Canada hiking four times over the next 12 months, which will definitively put Canadian rates above everyone else except for the U.S.," said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York. "What that tends to do is attract capital into Canada."

Foreign investment could also flow to Canada if the country resolve difficulties it faces in expanding the Trans Mountain oil pipeline, Anderson said.

Canada will not appeal a court ruling that overturned its approval of the pipeline project, opting instead for more consultations with aboriginal groups unhappy about the plan, a top official said on Wednesday.

The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, climbed on Wednesday to its highest since November 2014.

A larger-than-usual discount for Canada's heavy crude has reduced some benefit for Canada of higher oil prices.

Western Canada Select (WCS) oil traded on Tuesday for $42 per barrel less than West Texas Intermediate light oil, near its biggest differential in data going back to 2010, according to Shorcan Energy Brokers.

But Scotiabank expects the discount to narrow over the next one to two years and for the U.S. dollar to weaken, boosting commodity prices.

"Canada will get to benefit on the back of an improvement in our terms of trade," Theoret said.

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Polling by Indradip Ghosh and Sarmista Sen; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

Disclaimer: No Business Standard Journalist was involved in creation of this content

*Subscribe to Business Standard digital and get complimentary access to The New York Times

Smart Quarterly

₹900

3 Months

₹300/Month

SAVE 25%

Smart Essential

₹2,700

1 Year

₹225/Month

SAVE 46%
*Complimentary New York Times access for the 2nd year will be given after 12 months

Super Saver

₹3,900

2 Years

₹162/Month

Subscribe

Renews automatically, cancel anytime

Here’s what’s included in our digital subscription plans

Exclusive premium stories online

  • Over 30 premium stories daily, handpicked by our editors

Complimentary Access to The New York Times

  • News, Games, Cooking, Audio, Wirecutter & The Athletic

Business Standard Epaper

  • Digital replica of our daily newspaper — with options to read, save, and share

Curated Newsletters

  • Insights on markets, finance, politics, tech, and more delivered to your inbox

Market Analysis & Investment Insights

  • In-depth market analysis & insights with access to The Smart Investor

Archives

  • Repository of articles and publications dating back to 1997

Ad-free Reading

  • Uninterrupted reading experience with no advertisements

Seamless Access Across All Devices

  • Access Business Standard across devices — mobile, tablet, or PC, via web or app

More From This Section

First Published: Oct 04 2018 | 7:10 PM IST

Next Story