Corrected: Ghosts of tantrums past trigger first emerging market outflows since 2016: IIF

Image
Reuters
Last Updated : May 02 2018 | 6:45 PM IST

(Adds dropped word 'billion' in second para)

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) - The recent run up in the dollar and global borrowing costs has led to the first monthly outflow of foreign money from poorer "emerging" economies since 2016, estimates compiled by the Institute of International Finance show.

A new IIF report said the rising pressure from the dollar and bond yields has exhumed "the ghost of tantrums past" and caused a $0.5 billion outflow when combining figures from EM stocks funds and bond funds.

It was referring to the "taper tantrum" of 2013 when the U.S. Federal Reserve first hinted that it was looked to wind in the stimulus used to combat the financial crisis.

The April retrenchment was mostly concentrated in Asia, with combined debt and equity outflows amounting to some $7.8 billion. In contrast, foreign demand for Latin American securities was robust at about $6.8 billion.

"The rise of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields -- in tandem with a stronger dollar -- have been the key drivers of this downturn," the authors of the IIF study said.

"Indeed, foreign investors have withdrawn more than $5.5 billion from EM debt markets since April 16, a slightly faster pace than that seen during the taper tantrum in May 2013."

After a fast start to the year, net capital inflows to emerging markets which are a broader measure of cross-border flows, amounted to $77 billion in the first three months of 2018 which was still the largest net gain in four years.

For now though the tide has turned. The dollar has surged over three percent in two weeks and U.S. Treasury yields - a major driver of global borrowing costs - have broken above three percent for the first time in four years.

That has caused familiar jitters about the mountain of dollar-denominated debt that has been issued in the developing world in recent years.

They have borrowed at vastly cheaper rates by using dollars, but the rise in the U.S. currency now makes the repayments more costly unless they have been hedged.

The Bank for International Settlements this week said that a record 22 percent surge in debt sales last year pushed up the annual growth in EM dollar debt 10 percent to $3.7 trillion.

(Reporting by Marc Jones, Editing by William Maclean)

Disclaimer: No Business Standard Journalist was involved in creation of this content

*Subscribe to Business Standard digital and get complimentary access to The New York Times

Smart Quarterly

₹900

3 Months

₹300/Month

SAVE 25%

Smart Essential

₹2,700

1 Year

₹225/Month

SAVE 46%
*Complimentary New York Times access for the 2nd year will be given after 12 months

Super Saver

₹3,900

2 Years

₹162/Month

Subscribe

Renews automatically, cancel anytime

Here’s what’s included in our digital subscription plans

Exclusive premium stories online

  • Over 30 premium stories daily, handpicked by our editors

Complimentary Access to The New York Times

  • News, Games, Cooking, Audio, Wirecutter & The Athletic

Business Standard Epaper

  • Digital replica of our daily newspaper — with options to read, save, and share

Curated Newsletters

  • Insights on markets, finance, politics, tech, and more delivered to your inbox

Market Analysis & Investment Insights

  • In-depth market analysis & insights with access to The Smart Investor

Archives

  • Repository of articles and publications dating back to 1997

Ad-free Reading

  • Uninterrupted reading experience with no advertisements

Seamless Access Across All Devices

  • Access Business Standard across devices — mobile, tablet, or PC, via web or app

More From This Section

First Published: May 02 2018 | 6:34 PM IST

Next Story