Euro zone business activity brighter in June but clouds linger - PMI

Image
Reuters LONDON
Last Updated : Jul 04 2018 | 1:45 PM IST

LONDON (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity nudged up slightly faster than previously thought last month but firms were at their gloomiest since late 2016, offering little hope for a more robust rebound, a survey showed.

News of stronger growth, alongside rising price pressures, will reassure policymakers at the European Central Bank who last month said the ECB would shut its hallmark bond purchase scheme by the close of the year.

But in a balanced announcement reflecting uncertainties hanging over the economy, the ECB signalled on June 14 that any interest rate hike is still distant.

IHS Markit's Final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index, seen as a good overall indicator of euro zone growth, rose to 54.9 in June from May's 54.1, comfortably above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

That beat an earlier flash reading of 54.8, but the latest PMI is lagging much higher numbers from around the turn of the year. The future output index, which tracks business optimism, fell to 63.4 from 63.7 -- its lowest since November 2016.

"The upturn in the pace of economic growth and resurgent price pressures adds support to the ECB's view that stimulus should be tapered later this year, but the details of the survey also justify the central bank's cautious approach to policy," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

"In particular, a weakening in business optimism to the lowest for over 1-1/2 years reflects intensifying nervousness about the outlook for the economy, notably in manufacturing, as trade-war talk escalates."

The June manufacturing PMI, released on Monday, showed euro zone factory growth slowed to an 18-month low, slipping for the sixth month in a row amid widespread concerns about trade barriers and their impact on economic activity.

Services firms were less affected by fears of a trade war. Activity in the bloc's dominant industry accelerated, with the PMI jumping to a four-month high of 55.2 from 53.8.

That increase came despite firms raising their charges much more sharply. The services output prices PMI bounced to a five-month high of 53.2 from 52.0.

"Firms' costs and average selling prices for goods and services are meanwhile rising at rates close to seven-year highs, which will likely feed through to higher consumer price inflation in coming months," Williamson said.

Euro zone inflation rose to 2.0 percent in June, its highest rate for more than a year and above the ECB's target, preliminary data from Eurostat showed last week.

Williamson said the PMIs signalled second quarter economic growth of just over 0.5 percent, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll last month.

Disclaimer: No Business Standard Journalist was involved in creation of this content

*Subscribe to Business Standard digital and get complimentary access to The New York Times

Smart Quarterly

₹900

3 Months

₹300/Month

SAVE 25%

Smart Essential

₹2,700

1 Year

₹225/Month

SAVE 46%
*Complimentary New York Times access for the 2nd year will be given after 12 months

Super Saver

₹3,900

2 Years

₹162/Month

Subscribe

Renews automatically, cancel anytime

Here’s what’s included in our digital subscription plans

Exclusive premium stories online

  • Over 30 premium stories daily, handpicked by our editors

Complimentary Access to The New York Times

  • News, Games, Cooking, Audio, Wirecutter & The Athletic

Business Standard Epaper

  • Digital replica of our daily newspaper — with options to read, save, and share

Curated Newsletters

  • Insights on markets, finance, politics, tech, and more delivered to your inbox

Market Analysis & Investment Insights

  • In-depth market analysis & insights with access to The Smart Investor

Archives

  • Repository of articles and publications dating back to 1997

Ad-free Reading

  • Uninterrupted reading experience with no advertisements

Seamless Access Across All Devices

  • Access Business Standard across devices — mobile, tablet, or PC, via web or app

More From This Section

First Published: Jul 04 2018 | 1:37 PM IST

Next Story