Morgan Stanley says Indian shares 'likely to fall'

Reuters Market Eye - Morgan Stanley says RBI's cash tightening measures last month have made Indian shares much more vulnerable to global cues, especially the expected tapering of U.S. monetary stimulus.

"As RBI's moves echo into the economy, we believe that share prices in India are likely to fall led by banks," Morgan Stanley said in a note dated Wednesday.

Morgan Stanley cuts its bear-case scenario index target for the BSE Sensex to 16,200 from 17,912 while raising the probability of such a scenario to 35 percent from 20 percent.

The bank maintains its base case target at 21,500 points, with a 60 percent probability, while maintaining its bull case target at 23,000 points, though reducing the probability of that scenario to 5 percent from 20 percent.

As of 11:13 a.m., the BSE Sensex was trading up 0.04 percent at 18,671.51.

(Reporting by Rafael Nam)