Oil falls on low expectations for Doha meeting

Oil prices fell on Friday in thin trade as analysts said a weekend meeting of major oil exporters would do little to help clear global oversupply quickly even though it would provide a floor for the market.

Oil producers led by top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia will meet in Qatar on Sunday to discuss freezing output around current levels in an effort to contain a glut that sees some 1.5 million barrels of crude produced every day in excess of demand.

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It would be the first joint action by major OPEC and non-OPEC producers in 15 years although Iran has refused to participate, saying it wants to rebuild its output to pre-sanctions levels.

"Momentum is building behind an agreement that likely excludes Iran (and potentially Libya). While there will likely be little effect on the physical market an agreement would represent an important psychological shift in setting oil prices," investment bank Jefferies said on Friday.

Brent crude futures were at $42.77 a barrel at 1220 GMT, down $1.07 from their Thursday close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were also down $1.05 cents, trading at $40.45.

Yet with discussions among producers focussing on freezing output rather than cutting it, most analysts said they had little hope for a Doha deal that reduces the global oversupply.

The glut has pulled down crude prices by as much as 70% since mid-2014.

"The Doha meeting does not materially change the oil market balances," Barclays bank said.

"If recent supply-side fundamental support holds and the market's expectations for a credible statement and commitment are met, the meeting could help prevent prices from falling back to the low $30 range."

Consultancy Petromatrix said it saw the Saudis as a G20 member pushing for a deal to freeze output levels as both the IMF and the U.S. Federal Reserve are getting increasingly impatient about the low level of oil prices.

"Saudi Arabia has already frozen production at January levels and it now needs other countries to make some concessions," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix.

"Otherwise it fears that it will be forced by the G20 and its international institutions to cut production to stabilise oil prices and cutting production is something it does not want to do as Iran comes back."

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said that even if an output freeze deal was announced, it did not expect a genuine one to occur during the remainder of 2016.

Instead, Wood Mackenzie said it expected "OPEC output to rise 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year in 2016, with most of that growth coming from Iran and Iraq, both of whom have indicated plans to grow output in 2016."