Rupee down for fourth straight week; weakness may persist

By Neha Dasgupta

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The rupee ended weak on Friday, posting losses for a fourth straight week as high global oil prices posed a risk to the country's current account and inflation.

On the week, rupee lost 0.7 percent to the dollar, and was the second-most weak currency in Asia after the Indonesian rupiah, which ended down 1.5 percent on the week.

Traders expect falls in the rupee to continue next week due to month-end dollar demand from importers.

Some traders expect the rupee to weaken to as much as 61 per dollar unless the central bank aggressively steps in to protect the currency if global oil prices continue to stay high.

"On the rupee, 61 per dollar is more likely because of month-end payment demands and there will be increased hedging by importers," said Samir Lodha, managing director at QuantArt Market Solutions.

The partially convertible rupee ended at 60.1850/1950 per dollar versus its previous close of 60.08/09.

Brent crude held near $115 a barrel on Friday, close to a nine-month high, and was headed for its second weekly gain on increased risks of disruption to supply from Iraq.

India imports nearly two-thirds of its oil needs, and is the world's fourth-largest oil consumer.

On Thursday, a Reuters poll had showed long positions on the rupee had fallen to their lowest level since late April, as higher oil prices are seen hurting India's economy and further straining government finances.

On Tuesday, the rupee had slumped to a near-two-month low of 60.55 per dollar but recovered after traders said state-run banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank.

In addition, exporters also sold dollars, which aided the rupee's recovery, traders said.

Earlier this week, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan also assured markets that despite the uncertainty in Iraq India was better positioned to tackle any shocks on the external front.

In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 60.49, while the three-month was at 61.07.

(Editing by Sunil Nair)