'Glocal Warming'

OUTLOOK/ MACRO VIEW

Developing countries will be hit the hardest

With the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control having released their conclusive findings on the changes observed in the temperature rise attributable to human activity with rising Carbon Dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere to 382 ppm against a previous historic average of below 200 ppm, it becomes the duty of all of us to assess the impact on our environment. The UN Report is based on the conclusions of over 2,500 scientists from all over the world, led by India's Dr R K Pachauri, working as a group for over 10 years, and concludes that climate change due to human activities is changing our environment without any doubt. The trigger concentration level of 450 ppm is believed to usher in irreversible change.

The report analyses the impact under six categories:

Fresh Water Systems and their Management

Eco systems

Food, Fibre and Forest

Low lying areas

Industry, Settlement and Society

Health

Several low-lying island areas have now been submerged across the globe. Studies by groups in India have also assessed the impact on coastal areas in detail, especially the one from IIT Delhi. The impact assessment and its mitigation involves weather changes, including bigger storms like Katrina, floods and drought; displacement of people and their economic activities; health of millions; crop yields under higher temperature regimes; there is a clear impact on sustainable development and this would require large resources for investments needed for mitigation.

The developed countries are primarily responsible for carbon emissions but the impact, as per a recent World Bank study, would be heavier to bear for developing nations. It still remains to be seen how the international and national politics of climate change will evolve. If the hitherto recognised principle of polluter pays is used, developing nations must negotiate a hard deal well in advance, not just carbon credits but bargain for real investment grants, based on established scientific norms of assessment.

Several coastal areas of India would have special issues too. With a large proportion of the population living close to the coast, the impact of the prediction of rising sea level needs to be assessed sensitively without raising an alarm. States like Gujarat which are water-stressed, with a substantial reduction of fresh water in the river systems, as predicted by the UN IPCC report, could have huge implications for drinking water supply, water for irrigation and for manufacturing.

Besides, the impact on the port-led development strategy and coastal SEZs that India's maritime states are following successfully, also needs to be reviewed. Heavily industrialised states, like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, which need special facilities like deep sea effluent systems for waste management and large quantity of fresh water, would have to be reassessed.

An overall reassessment for sustainable development is important for India, with measures for creating large carbon sinks (like forests) and stiffer mandatory norms for efficient energy generation, distribution and final use becoming an absolute must in the near future for electricity, manufacturing and transportation.

Finally, it is a development whose impact needs to be understood by all stakeholders. Citizens, industry, government, NGOs, media and farmers need to work together with experts to come out with a report, perhaps named 'Glocal Warming'. The government is seized of this issue and this year's budget saw the FM announce such an initiative.

The author is advisor, Zydus Group, Crisil, Suzlon Energy Ltd, and his views are personal