12-13% Export Growth Expected

The Centre expects exports to grow by 12-13 per cent next year, said the chief economic advisor to the finance ministry, Shankar N Acharya.

No projections for export growth were made by finance minister P Chidambaram in his budget presentation on Friday. However, the ministers speech mentioned the fact that he was expecting a growth rate of 15 per cent for overall imports in 1997-98.

Projections of a rise in customs revenue by 20 per cent during 1997-98 have been made on the basis of the assumption about imports growth.

Indias exports during April-January 1996-97 are estimated at $27.06 billion, an increase of 6.19 per cent over the corresponding period last year. Imports for the same period are estimated at $31.35 billion, or 6.13 per cent higher than the corresponding period last year.

The expected surge in exports during the last three months of the current financial year failed to materialise in January. The government is hopeful that India will end the current financial year with annual exports of $34-35 billion, against an initial target of $38 billion. Even the revised figure requires exports to grow by roughly $4 billion per month till end-March.

Therefore, export performance will have to improve from the $2.84 billion recorded in January 1997. But even this figure is 8.77 per cent higher than the level in January 1996. This is a positive development since November and December showed negative growth in the monthly rates. Exports during April-December, 1996 grew at 6.36 per cent over the corresponding period last year, while imports during April-December, 1996 went up by 4.41 per cent.

Oil imports between April 1996 and January 1997 are valued at $7.87 billion, which is 37.4 per cent higher than the $5.7 billion worth of oil imports during the same period last year. Non-oil imports in the same period are estimated at $23.47 billion, 1.4 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year. The trade deficit for April-January 1997 is estimated at $4.28 billion, which is higher than the deficit of $4.05 billion during April-January 1996.