BS Number Wise: The cricketing myth of 'Mauka Mauka'

Indian fans take pride in their team's performance against Pakistan in World Cup cricket matches. Outside such matches, data analysis makes a revelation

Indian "Mauka Mauka" advertisements show Pakistanis breaking their television sets because of their team’s recurring losses to neighbourhood rivals in World Cup matches. The latest ad campaign (meaning in Hindi an opportunity to win) was released before the ICC Men's T20 World Cup underway in Dubai.

India lost to Pakistan in the tournament on October 24: their first such defeat in a World Cup. The two teams have had 13 World Cup matches, results of which gave Indian advertisers reason to say "Mauka Mauka". Outside the small sample size of World Cup matches, data reveals a different trend about India vs Pakistan in cricket.

The two teams have had 200 encounters across formats. Our analysis considered Tests, One Day Internationals and Twenty20 Internationals since 1952, excluding abandoned or cancelled games. Many Test matches ended in draws. The coming of short-format cricket ensured conclusive match results. Pakistan has done better overall as seen in chart 1.

Cricket is often won or lost on the pitch before the first ball. A seaming track or a spinning one can determine outcomes just as much as a team’s performance. A larger number of games played in unfavourable conditions could skew numbers. An example that comes to mind is the second Test match of India’s 1978 Pakistan tour. The pitch and the outfield were said to be the same colour of green, favouring Pakistan’s quicker bowlers. India lost by eight wickets despite the best efforts of among others, brothers-in-law Sunil Gavaskar and Gundappa Viswanath in the second innings.

Our analysis shows that India has played Pakistan more often at home than on Pakistan soil. The 200 games include 66 across formats played in India and 53 played in Pakistan. Pakistan has a higher relative victory score in both instances. The closest games are in neutral venues. India has won nine matches for every ten won by Pakistan in the 81 games played outside either country (see chart 2).

India did its best against Pakistan between 1952 and 1977 when it had a win/loss ratio of two. This means that it won two games for every game lost. This trend reflects the outcome of the first cricket series between the two. India won two matches in 1952 and lost one. There were a dozen draws till 1961. The two countries didn’t play together till 1978 (see chart 3).

Memories from earlier times as well as the T20 World Cup match two weeks ago often show fans complaining bitterly and players gracious in defeat. As they say: form is temporary, class is permanent.