Can Japan's Hideki Matsuyama sustain his lead to win the Master 2021?

Saturday is said to be Moving Day, when the pulse quickens as the number of holes begin to run out and those who “expect” to contend, position themselves to take advantage on the Sunday. But Justin Rose stayed stock still at (-)7 with a Par 72 round while many around him moved up the ladder to lie tied second with him at (-)7 (Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, and the sole hope from Australia, Marc Leishman). The redoubtable Hideki Matsuyama mounted a late charge after a 75-minute weather delay, which had softened the course to be conducive to attacking shots. The greens changed from very fast to slow and those who could adjust benefited. Everything worked for Matsuyama in the back nine as he read the new conditions perfectly and executed shots to set up an eagle and 4 birdies to be at (-)11, four shots ahead. Justin Thomas could not adjust and with the only triple of the tournament on the eagleable 13th, has probably shot himself out of contention. 

Because the Masters does not issue a “Greens Book” to players, like a “go to” place for “gyaan” (knowledge), they must accumulate their knowledge through those who have learned much before them and from their own experience. It’s rare for a first timer to win. Zalatoris is in position for that, but even if he doesn’t win, or does, his knowledge for the next time around will increase. Some are fast learners, such as Tiger Woods or Jordan Spieth, but there is no guru who can tell you what to do in every condition, except experience.

A wire-to-wire victory is very difficult here, as Rose has just found out. Spieth did it in 2015. Different pressures came into play and answering questions, in detail to a probing media such as how lucky he was in his scrambling round, does not help. Matsuyama is terrified of the media, particularly the Japanese media, because he will now be hounded for the rest of his life. For the English-speaking media, he can put on a mask of not understanding the question (although after so many years on the tour and five PGA victories, he surely does) and using an interpreter as a dense filter. Excess media interaction, while popular with the followers of the game, does take away from the need to separate public thoughts with the need of the moment to stay calm and detached.  However, a spectacular bogey-free round, which nobody else has achieved in the tournament, does require some comment from Matsuyama. His appropriate response that every shot is differ­ent, and that he just hits the ball and then han­dles the result without angst as the next shot is different, is perfect. What else is there to say?

Whoever thinks of Matsuyama? Quiet, unassuming, just doing his job and minding his own business. Now that he has achieved instant recognition as a potential Masters Champion, in the USA and worldwide, people are surprised that he is married, has a kid, and lives in the area of Japan that was devastated by the Tsunami. If nobody asks him, he sees no reason to tell. He is different from the flam­boyant Isao Aoki who broke the path for Japanese golfers into the US by being runner up to Jack Nicklaus in the 1980 US Open and then winning the 1983 Hawaiian Open. He flourished in the era of the world thinking of Japan as Japan Inc. Sometimes cultural differences stand in the way of Japanese (and those of other nations whose language is not English) to play more on the fabulously rich USPGA tour, but that might well change now with Matsuyama being the first Japanese to lead the Masters (by four shots, at that!) going into the final round. Should he win, golf in the already golf crazy nation of Japan will boom even more, and Matsuyama will be treated like a demi-god. He deserves it.

But victory is not yet his. Countless stories can be told (Greg Norman, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth) of those who crumbled under the self-imposed pressure of an impending win. Only laser sharp focus, to the exclusion of all else, can render one in the space to win. As the gap narrows, which it might, and one looks at the leaderboard (the equivalent of looking over your shoulder), the pressure mounts and the hands tighten. Since he is playing in the last pairing, even the roars, however muted, owing to reduced number of patrons, will also inform him of what he has to do and where he is.

The back nine holds special terrors. The 10th with its huge false front at the green, the 11th with its narrow fairway and the pond abutting the green, the less said about the 12th the better, and of course if one is thinking of leaping forward to staunch all challenges, then Rae’s creek in front of thirteen and fifteen come seriously into play. Dulce periculum!

Of the most likely contenders, those within six shots of the leader, four out of seven are non-US. This augurs well for the growth of this sport worldwide even more. It truly is an international sport befitting of national and corporate support. More on that tomorrow.

It’s interesting to speculate on potential outcomes. One may safely say that the challenge from the mighty Bryson DeChambeau, for this year at least, has abated. He will not bring the house down. Justin Thomas, who was one of the favourites going in, could not adjust from the fast to the slower greens and has self-combusted. All the rest, aside from those within six shots of the leader, only come into contention in the unlikely event that they rise like a rocket and all the others falter and fade away. It’s all possible but we should concentrate on those seven.

Enough has been said about Matsuyama as the most likely to win by his already having that four-stroke lead and his general composure. Leishman has performed well here, even through family trials, but has not closed the deal and, therefore, the prospect of Australia winning a second green Jacket are distant.

Zalatoris, despite his obvious talent, trem­endous self-confidence bordering on youthful cockiness, and superb ball striking is a first-timer and is bound to feel immense pressure as the holes fly past. Unless he can rise fast early, relatively, that pressure could undo him. Corey Conners, or Corey Pines as he is sometimes called in jest, has been performing really well against the best players but has only one PGA win in his back pocket. The English Rose may have already been in full bloom on the first day, Thursday, and appears to be ready to shed sev­eral petals. Recent back injuries at age 40 take its toll and while the game is very much there, he only stayed where he is owing to several lucky scrambles and that argues for his ouster. 

And that leaves the Texan Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele from Southern California. The same age, the same toughness, several PGA wins under the belt and several top ten finishes in Majors. One difference is that Spieth has won the Masters, and two other Majors. He has also self-destructed at the Masters in 2016 and then seemed to fall off the perch for three years until the last six weeks. On the other hand, Xander is certainly the more consistent with lesser-known weaknesses and is clearly hungry. It’s all a toss-up and, like all other denouements in this greatest of all stages, we have to wait for the curtain to come down.