5G enabled iPhones are here but the networks may take some time to come

The reality is that India is far behind the world in 5G and it might be a while before you can surf internet on 5G networks on your iPhone 12

Apple Inc's latest iPhone 12 range was launched yesterday and these 5G enabled phones can only be described as latecomers in the game. There are already more than 138 commercially available 5G phones available across the world. And they are from some of the big boys like Samsung, Huawei, Vivo, Xiaomi, HTC, Realme, OnePlus just to name a few.

If you are thinking of getting this or any other 5G phone in India, then you might need a rethink before taking the plunge as they offer little else beyong novelty value. The ground reality is that Indian telcos don't expect 5G services to become a reality any time before 2022. A telecom gear maker of course says that it is technically possible for some telcos to offer 5G on any band, as their equipment is 5G enabled. But they still don't have the huge spectrum needed to provide quality and speed.

The reality is that India is far behind the world in 5G, just like it was in 4G or 3G technology (three to five years) and has a lot of catching up to do.

So according to GSA estimates 96 operators in 41 countries have launched 3GPP-compliant 5G services. And by the end of August over 397 operators in as many as many as 129 countries have announced they are investing in 5G.

So what is the problem? One clearly is government’s ambivalent attitude on the auctioning of the 5G spectrum. For instance for the upcoming auctions which are expected to be held early next year, 5G spectrum will not be on offer. That is because there is still no clarity as to how much spectrum would be available in the 3500 MHz band with various government departments like defence contending that part of it should be reserved for them. That would leave inadequate spectrum (175 Mhz ) for three potential operators, as you require large bandwidth (minimum is 80 Mhz each) of spectrum for 5G.    

Even the availability of spectrum to undertake trial runs has been delayed indefinitely. As early as last year the Department of Telecom had announced that it would provide 5G spectrum for trial in 100 days. Yet despite telcos making their applications with telecom gear players which includes Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE, the government did not take any action.

With anti-China sentiments after the border clashes between the two countries this year there were fears that the government would ban Chinese players like Huaewi in participating in the trial runs. Some operators fearing a ban gave additional applications with non- Chinese companies for trials. But after months of lack of clarity, the government recently said that there was no move to ban them at the moment. Yet everyone is still waiting for permission for the spectrum to be given for 5G trials.

The Reliance Jio case actually goes a step further. The company announced that it wanted to test its indigenous 5G technology so that it could sell to the world and needed spectrum in August this year. It wanted to do trial runs in Mumbai and Delhi. But it has also been met with stoic silence from the government.

But it is not all about the government. Most telcos believe that the base price for 5G spectrum is too high for developing a viable business model at the moment. Especially when telcos are facing financial stress thanks to the Supreme Court order directing them to pay up their AGR dues in ten years. The other reason, say incumbent operators, is the fact that for the business to be sustainable, its return on investment has to improve. But for that tariffs and ARPUs have to go up substantially to around Rs 300 (currently it is at half of this). But Reliance Jio is not willing to join others in raising prices yet.

Moreover, many in the government and amongst telcos believe that the country needs a three private players telecom market to ensure consumers get the best choice and prices remain low. Auctioning 5G spectrum at a time when Vodafone Idea (Vi) is in serious financial trouble could force them to shut down operations.

While 5G is being discussed, telcos like Reliance Jio remain frustrated that the government has not even decided on 4G auctions. It has already petitioned the government to do so as quickly as possible.

More importantly, the business model for 5G is fundamentally different from 4G –because of its many times higher speeds it requires new use cases to make it viable. So its revenues will not just come from consumers who are looking for quicker downloads, streaming movies and maybe seeing them on virtual reality. It will come from machine-to-machine usage, usage in healthcare for instance in remote robotic surgery for which 5G offers low latency, use cases in agriculture like using sensors in the field to give farmers latest and projected information on the weather and soil mosisture. 5G can be used to enable security solutions-like power a facial recognition system in airports.

A senior telecom executive offers another perspective when he says, "There are many reasons why we should join 5G later. First gear prices will fall further as more 5G networks are set up. Two, as in South Korea where telcos are struggling for more use cases apart from mobile broadband to homes and gaming, more revenue generating use cases need to be developed some specifically for India for the business to be viable.”

With that being the situation, it might be a little while before you can download games or surf the internet using 5G on that new iPhone 12.