From $50 billion now, IT-BPO exports will be $175 bn by 2020

A joint study with McKinsey, conducted in 1998, had set an aspiration for information technology business leaders, to drive exports. We had predicted that a humble $4-billion industry then would touch $50 billion or thereabouts within the next 10 years. We closed December 2009 by clocking $49.7 billion. It looked ambitious then, but riding on the quality of human resources, we did well and proved our critics wrong.

And, now we are saying that in another 10 years, by 2020, IT-BPO exports are once again poised for phenomenal growth and evolution. This time, we are predicting $175 billion. Additionally, the domestic market would also contribute another $50 billion to the gross domestic product (GDP).

The ‘quarter se quarter tak’ era, synonymous with a high degree of uncertainty, would be distinctly different. The recession has changed markets completely – never to be the same again. While the US and UK markets will remain significant, new geographies will emerge as future opportunities.

Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) countries and small- and medium-sized business (SMB) segments will no more be just acronyms, but will come to signify actual ‘words’ in the English language. Along with other untapped markets, they will contribute to upwards of 80 per cent in the growth trajectory.

In future, new verticals, like health care, public sector, media, utilities and the like will script the ‘India shining’ story. As the rush for doing things cheaper, faster and more efficiently gathers further momentum, disruptive innovation is likely to drive this change. This will result in increased employment opportunities, of diversity and a significant change in our academic curricula.

We are also likely to experience a tectonic shift, as Tier-II and Tier-III cities progressively take over excess load from the Top 7. Also, there’s no turning away from the fact that the environment needs to be protected. And by us - most importantly! Green Technology will enable climate change, as energy-efficient models are likely to provide a $30 billion opportunity. Inclusiveness is another game-changer which will necessitate instant adaptation, as socio-economic pressures swell, to bridge the gap and engage with those currently languishing at the bottom of the pyramid.

The Leadership Forum of Nasscom has always been the platform, central to all discussions related to the IT/BPO industry. A microcosm of the industry, this year, too, it is structured to address these changes.

The need for collaboration has never been felt as strongly, as is now. Ministers, bureaucrats, global business leaders, academicians and other intellectual minds will come together in Mumbai at Grand Hyatt (February 9-11) and take us through the changing landscape. The flagship event of Nasscom is indeed a sneak preview of what to expect in future.

(The author is Nasscom president)