Kaynat Chainwala

The key shift in October is that the oil price rally has changed character from reflecting genuine physical tightness to what could happen next, explains Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo.

Gold price outlook: If Brent extends rally and feeds into hotter inflation data and firmer Fed hike bets, lifting yields and the dollar, Gold could test $4,000-mark, says Kaynat Chainwala, Kotak Neo.

Oil price outlook: Escalating tanker strikes, Houthi pressure on Gulf infrastructure and Iranian tactical framing around the midterm calendar keep the floor firm.

A break below $4,100 would expose further downside toward the $3,960 to $4,000 zone. Until that turn materialises, near-term price action is likely to remain driven by the rate market.

Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities reckons that the MCX Crude Oil is showing a cautious-to-bearish setup on the 4-hour chart after facing resistance near ₹9,280-9,300 levels.

The diplomatic picture adds further uncertainty. Trump described his meeting with Iran's delegation at the UNGA as very good and indicated further discussions are scheduled.

In August, Treasury more than doubled its bond repurchase operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation

Domestically, the dollar was whipsawed by a shifting Fed outlook through the week, leaving gold caught between a structurally softer greenback and rising rate-hike probability.

Global gold ETFs recorded 23.5 tonnes of inflows in July, reversing two straight months of outflows.

If negotiations continue to lose momentum, Brent could move towards $95-97 a barrel. However, any credible diplomatic breakthrough could quickly unwind part of the premium and trigger a sharp reversal

Crude is not trading under normal conditions. Until there is a durable resolution to the conflict, geopolitical risk will continue to dominate price discovery.

With three simultaneous chokepoints under stress and the Yanbu bypass route now threatened, a Brent move above $100 looks increasingly plausible

Gold's near-term direction depends on whether June CPI marks the start of a durable disinflation trend or a temporary pullback driven by energy base effects.

Recent pullback in crude oil prices from the channel support suggests short-covering, but the prevailing structure continues to reflect lower highs and lower lows, keeping the broader downtrend intact

Domestically, MCX gold remained relatively resilient, seeing a 5 per cent decline in the June quarter, supported by the depreciation of the Indian rupee and higher import duties.

Gold sold off not because the war became less threatening, but because the war was making the Fed's job harder.

The Supertrend indicator remains in sell mode, while prices are hovering around the short-term moving average zone, suggesting the absence of a strong directional trend.

Even a successful reopening may not bring oil prices down sharply, as the scale of disruption and the time required for markets to rebalance will keep oil elevated in the range of $80-95 range.

Reports of a possible US-Iran framework involving a ceasefire extension and steps to reopen Hormuz triggered a sharp 7 per cent single-session drop earlier this week

Rising real yields alongside a firmer dollar have together stripped two of gold's most consistent supports simultaneously