Kenneth Rogoff

China's booming technology & export industries are thriving despite a prolonged property crisis, weak domestic consumption and rising inequality, raising questions about its long-term growth prospects

A pain-free budget consolidation is wishful thinking, not least because of AI

Winning the AI race will matter little if, in the process, we create hazards that no country can contain

Trump's high-growth push - fuelled by stimulus, deregulation and rate cuts - may heat up the US economy but risks persistent inflation and financial instability

After years of soaring markets and ignored risks, 2026 could test investor complacency as geopolitics, AI hype, policy volatility and debt push the global economy towards turbulence

Economists have long argued that easing restrictions on cross-border mobility brings enormous benefits to both destination and origin countries

While stimulating the economy during a downturn is important, the size of the stimulus needs to be calibrated, especially if it leads to very high debt

To be sure, a wildly upbeat assessment of AI's potential impact on economic growth has propelled asset markets higher over the last few years

Historically, most debt and inflation crises have occurred when governments that could have met their obligations in full instead chose inflation or default

Fortunately, the US economy has remained resilient amid the uncertainty and chaos unleashed by Mr Trump's tariff war

Typically, a US president announces a new Fed chair a few months before the incumbent's term ends - just enough time for Senate confirmation hearings and a smooth transition

International investors have long had a seemingly insatiable appetite for US Treasuries, widely regarded as the ultimate safe haven

The global demand for dollars, the argument goes, drives up its value, making US-made goods more expensive than imports

Mr Trump's antagonism towards Mr Powell is baffling, given that Mr Powell has been doing an excellent job

Western observers rarely pay more than lip service to the roughly 85 per cent of the world's population living in the Global South

One would hope that a Trump administration would not try to interfere with foreign-exchange markets beyond instituting tariffs

Despite what many in the US may think, economic decoupling is not a viable option

This is not to say that individual central bankers are untrustworthy. The problem is that most central banks are not as independent as many believe

Despite stabilising the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is hindered by the widespread perception that he is a lame duck

The rally is fuelled by the expectation that AI will remain unregulated, but there is little reason to believe it can last