Economic Survey: A Snapshot

Look and feel

• For the first time the Survey this year comes in two parts. A detailed review of the year gone by will appear in the course of the year 

• The 335-page Survey is divided into three sections — The Perspective, The Proximate, and The Persistent 

• A chapter titled Eight Interesting Facts About India showcases economic trends and analysis

• The Survey embraces Big Data to highlight the interplay between flow of goods and people and its impact on economic activity

Trivia

• Around 200 people find mention in the acknowledgement 

• Some notable names, who or whose work find a mention in some of the chapters include John Maynard Keynes, T S Eliot, William Shakespeare, Ramakrishna Paramhansa, George Eliot, Antiphon the Sophist, Mahatma Gandhi, Lee Kuan Yew, Jawaharlal Nehru and Rabindranath Tagore 

• The names of chapters are angular. Sample these: Demonetisation: To Deify or Demonise?; The Festering Twin Balance Sheet Problem; The Economic Vision for Precocious, Cleavaged India 

• The chapter on demonetisation is 24 pages long, while the one on universal basic income occupies 22

State of the economy

• Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2016-17 to dip to 6.5%, down from 7.6% in the past financial year 

• Economic growth to rebound to 6.75-7.5% in 2017-18 

• Farm sector to grow at 4.1% this year, up from 1.2% in 2015-16 

• Growth rate of industrial sector estimated to moderate to 5.2% in 2016-17 from 7.4% last year

• Demonetisation to affect growth rate by 0.25-0.5 per cent, but to have long-term benefits 

• Fiscal gains from GST will take time to realize

Issues and priorities

• The Survey advocates a different approach to tackle the twin balance sheet problems of overleveraged companies and bad loan-encumbered banks

• Set up a centralised Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency to take charge of the largest, most difficult cases, and make politically tough decisions to reduce debt 

• The Survey says structural reform in the banking sector has to consider the issue of government majority ownership in public sector banks

• On fiscal management, the Survey highlights the risk in India’s strategy of relying on rapid growth, rather than steady primary balance adjustment, to reduce debt 

• To build on the long-term benefits of demonetisation, the Survey suggests a series of follow-up actions 

• This includes measures to drive demand, faster remonetisation, tax reforms, including bringing land and real estate into the GST, reducing tax rates and stamp duties 

• While giving a thumbs-up to the concept of a universal basic income (UBI), the Survey notes a number of implementation challenges could make UBI another add-on to anti-poverty and social programmes, making it financially unaffordable

• The Survey suggests a radically different route to regional and social development, including offering UBI as an option for availing social benefits  

• The Survey calls for more privatisation in the civil aviation, banking and fertiliser sectors, to further the economic reforms process

• Real estate prices could fall further, as investing undeclared income in real estate becomes more difficult, the Survey says