Vodafone Idea may post marginal revenue growth in Q3, say analysts

Vodafone Idea (Vi) is expected to post marginal improvement in its revenues for the December quarter of 2023-24 despite a sustained erosion of subscribers, analysts said.

Increasing expenses led to the telco major reporting a consolidated net loss of Rs 8,746 crore in Q2FY24, which was 15.2 per cent higher on an annual basis. Meanwhile, the net loss stood at Rs 7,837 crore in Q1FY24.

Vi’s results for the third quarter are set to be announced on Monday.

“We expect ARPU to rise 2.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to touch Rs 146 in Q3FY24 vs Rs 142 in Q2FY24 aided by improving subscriber mix. Hence, we expect revenues to grow 1.4 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 10,900 crore," a note by JM Financial said. 

The company's revenue from operations stood at Rs 10,716 crore in Q2, up from Rs 10,655 crore in Q1.

Vi's ARPU was the lowest among the three private telcos in Q2, rising to Rs 143 from Rs 139 in Q1. However, it has risen consecutively for 9 straight quarters as more 2G customers move to 4G, the company has said.

Bank of America also expects revenues to rise 1 per cent to Rs 10,730 crore, as low-end tariff adjustments in a few circles raise ARPU by 1 per cent sequentially. Similarly, ICICI Securities said in a note, that ARPU is expected to grow on the back of the rising penetration of unlimited plans in Q3.

All analysts however remain unanimous in predicting subscriber losses. "We expect subscriber loss to pick up again for Vi in Q3 — loss of 3 million versus 1.6 million losses in Q2. In Q2, Vi had participated in a government scheme that brought in a significant number of new subscribers, including 4G subscribers," Emkay Global said note.