Why Pakistan's semifinal hopes hinge on England vs New Zealand result today
How can Pakistan qualify for the semifinal? Will the rain gods help PAK in the race for semis? Business Standard takes a look at all the possible scenarios for New Zealand and Pakistan's SF chances
Pakistan and New Zealand's semifinal qualification scenarios
As the Super 8 stage nears its end, the ICC T20 World Cup 2026 could confirm its third semifinalists after the England vs New Zealand Group 2 match in Colombo today. From Group 1, South Africa have qualified for the semifinal, while England have secured a spot from Group 2.
The equation in Group 2, along with the odd points for Pakistan and New Zealand, makes it different from Group 1, as the New Zealand vs Pakistan match was abandoned, with both teams earning one point each. New Zealand are likely to join England in the semifinals from Group 2 if the Kiwis emerge victorious today.
If New Zealand win, Pakistan — who still have a mathematical chance — will be knocked out.
But what happens if New Zealand lose to England? Can they still qualify for the semifinal? T20 World Cup 2026 Group 2 points table before the conclusion of England vs New Zealand match today
Super 8 GROUP 2
POS
TEAM
PLAYED
WON
LOST
N/R
TIED
Net RR
POINTS
Q
England
2
2
0
0
0
1.491
4
2
New Zealand
2
1
0
1
0
3.05
3
3
Pakistan
2
0
1
1
0
-0.461
1
4
Sri Lanka (E)
2
0
2
0
0
-2.8
0
With Colombo’s weather threatening to play spoilsport, and both New Zealand and Pakistan still in contention mathematically, Business Standard looks at the various scenarios as the two teams battle for the remaining semifinal spot from Group 2.
Pakistan semifinal qualification scenarios
Only scenario: New Zealand lose to England and Pakistan beat Sri Lanka
This is the best possible outcome for Pakistan. However, the Men in Green must win their final Super 8 match against Sri Lanka on February 28.
If New Zealand lose to England, they will finish with three points from three games. However, given the Kiwis’ healthy net run rate (NRR) of 3.050, Pakistan would need England to defeat New Zealand by a significant margin.
Pakistan’s NRR of -0.461 could hurt their chances even if they beat Sri Lanka. If New Zealand lose and Pakistan win, both teams will be tied on three points, and the NRR will decide the semifinalist. Therefore, Pakistan must win by a big margin.
A positive for Pakistan is that they will know the exact NRR equation before their match, as they play a day later.
New Zealand semifinal qualification scenarios
Scenario 1: New Zealand beat England
The simplest route for New Zealand is to beat England. That would take them to five points and confirm their semifinal berth as Group 2 toppers.
In this case, NRR will not come into play, as no other team can reach five points. Even if Pakistan win their final Super 8 fixture, they will finish with three points. England, already qualified with four points, will remain on four even if they lose to New Zealand.
Scenario 2: New Zealand lose to England
If New Zealand lose to England, they will finish the Super 8 stage with three points — the maximum Pakistan can also achieve.
In that situation, NRR will determine the second semifinalist from Group 2.
Scenario 3: England vs New Zealand washed out
Although the forecast suggests only a seven per cent chance of rain, a washout would take New Zealand to four points.
In that case, New Zealand would qualify for the semifinal. Pakistan can reach a maximum of three points if they beat Sri Lanka, which would not be enough.
