India's exports to US decline, non-US markets show strength: Crisil

India's exports to the United States have contracted, while shipments to non-US destinations have remained robust, surpassing previous growth figures, rating agency Crisil said in its report for October.

According to the report, merchandise exports to the US had shown a degrowth by 11.9 per cent to $5.5 billion in September, after recording a 7 per cent growth in August 2025. The agency noted that without the frontloading of shipments ahead of the tariff hike, the fall would have been sharper.

In contrast, exports to non-US markets expanded by 10.9 per cent in September, accelerating from 6.6 per cent growth in August 2025, it said.

The decline in US-bound exports followed the Trump administration's decision to impose a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, effective from August 27.

Crisil cautioned that India's merchandise exports are facing headwinds from the US tariff hikes and a broader slowdown in global growth.

The World Trade Organisation has projected that global merchandise trade volumes will increase by 2.4 per cent in 2025, compared to 2.8 per cent in 2024.

Despite these challenges, Crisil expects India's current account deficit (CAD) to remain within manageable limits, supported by strong services exports, steady remittance inflows, and easing crude oil prices.

The CAD will be around 1 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal, up from 0.6 per cent in the previous year, it said in its forecast.