Crisil Report

India's power demand dipped 0.3% to 123 BUs in November amid lower temperatures, even as peak demand hit a record 216 GW, with RE and hydro generation rising and coal output falling

Capital outlay of states is expected to grow from four per cent to six per cent in the current financial year touching approximately Rs 7.5 lakh crore, Crisil Ratings said in its report on Friday. This would be lower than seven per cent in the last financial year and well below the decadal average of 11 per cent as rising revenue deficits are limiting financial flexibility, the report said. Water supply and sanitation, including housing and urban development and irrigation, will continue to be the main drivers of the capital expenditure, the report said. The top 18 states will account for 94 per cent of capital outlay of the states. According to the report, rising revenue deficit of the states are due to slow pace of growth due to moderation in GST rates post rationalisation, slowing devolution from the Centre and lower nominal GDP growth driven by easing inflation. On the other hand, revenue expenditure is set to grow sharply by seven per cent to nine per cent, driven by committe

The recent US-India LPG import pact marks a major shift in supplier diversification, reducing dependence on West Asian cargoes, though freight-linked cost sensitivities may affect OMC economics

Crisil expects mall operators to post strong revenue growth in FY26, driven by new mall additions, robust occupancy, reduced GST rates and improved consumption trends

The report highlighted that to cater to buoyant demand, capacity in the industry is expected to double to 2.3-2.5 gigawatt (GW) by March 2028

India's merchandise exports fell 11.8 per cent year-on-year, since August 2024, to USD 34.38 billion in October, Crisil said in its report. This follows a 50 per cent increase in US tariffs on August 27 this year, a move that has subdued exports for the second month in a row, the report said. The decline in exports was broad-based across petroleum products, gems and jewellery and core sectors. Petroleum products exports declined 10.4 per cent year-on-year in October, compared to a growth of 15.1 per cent in September. Similarly, core exports slipped to 10.2 per cent compared to 6.1 per cent growth in September 2025, the report said. Merchandise exports to US decreased 8.6 per cent year-on-year to USD 6.3 billion in October. This was an improvement from the 11.9 per cent decline in September, according to the report. The announcement by the US on November 16 to cut tariffs on 254 food items bodes well for some of the agricultural exports, such as tea and spices, the report ...

Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are poised for a sharp rebound, with operating profits expected to surge more than 50 per cent to USD 18-20 per barrel this fiscal year, driven by stronger marketing margins amid stable retail fuel prices and supportive crude oil dynamics, Crisil Ratings said on Friday. OMCs earn from refining (gross refining margins or GRMs) and from marketing of petrol, diesel, and other fuels. "This fiscal, the improvement in marketing margin will more than offset a moderation in refining margin owing to slow growth in global demand for fossil fuels as the world transitions towards cleaner energy sources," Crisil Ratings said in a note. Healthy profitability is set to bolster cash accruals to Rs 75,000-80,000 crore, compared with about Rs 55,000 crore last fiscal year. The stronger cash flow will support the sector's planned Rs 90,000 crore capex, largely focused on brownfield expansion and domestic demand-driven projects. Crude oil prices are expected to soften to

Capex during FY26-FY28 to be 50% higher than the previous three years; industry to add up to 170 MT of capacity amid strong demand, says Crisil Ratings

Crisil Ratings expects non-microfinance segments like housing, MSME and vehicle loans to drive 16-17% growth in small finance banks' advances this fiscal

Crisil Ratings said post the rationalisation of GST on commercial vehicles, acquisition of new fleet by the operators would decline substantially. It said in a statement on Monday that GST on commercial vehicles has been reduced to 18 per cent from 28 per cent. "This will bring down the acquisition cost of fleet operators," it said. Domestic commercial fleet operators are expected to clock a revenue growth of eight per cent to ten per cent this financial year, according to the statement. Strong domestic demand and import-related fleet requirements will drive growth. Higher revenues and stable margins will result in improved cash flows, which will partially fund the incremental working capital requirement, the statement said. Dependence on external short-term debt will be limited, and operators will undertake additions to their fleets funded by long-term loans. Increased fleet utilisation will ensure operating margins to remain stable between eight per cent to 8.5 per cent, accordi

India's exports to the United States have contracted, while shipments to non-US destinations have remained robust, surpassing previous growth figures, rating agency Crisil said in its report for October. According to the report, merchandise exports to the US had shown a degrowth by 11.9 per cent to USD 5.5 billion in September, after recording a 7 per cent growth in August 2025. The agency noted that without the frontloading of shipments ahead of the tariff hike, the fall would have been sharper. In contrast, exports to non-US markets expanded by 10.9 per cent in September, accelerating from 6.6 per cent growth in August 2025, it said. The decline in US-bound exports followed the Trump administration's decision to impose a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, effective from August 27. Crisil cautioned that India's merchandise exports are facing headwinds from the US tariff hikes and a broader slowdown in global growth. The World Trade Organisation has projected that global merchand

Crisil Ratings says slower installation of smart meters and payment delays under the RDSS scheme could reduce the internal rate of return for AMISPs by up to 150 basis points

NBFCs led issuances while bank-originated deals slowed; ICRA and Crisil see steady demand from microfinance and corporate transactions in Q2 FY26

Volume growth of complex fertilisers is expected to slow down to 2-4 per cent in this financial year from 9 per cent last year amid import constraints, geopolitical headwinds and a high-base effect, a report said on Thursday. Crisil Ratings in the report stated that supply disruptions have also led to a rise in raw material prices, which in turn may increase the subsidy requirement. However, credit profiles are seen stable because of steady profitability, expected additional subsidy allocation and its timely disbursement, said the report. "Volume growth of complex fertilisers is seen slowing to 2-4 per cent this fiscal after a strong 9 per cent print last fiscal because of availability issues with imported fertilisers, ongoing geopolitical disruptions and high-base effect," the report said. Complex fertilisers account for a third of the overall domestic fertiliser consumption of which nitrogen phosphorus potassium (NPK) grades comprise 55 per cent and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) ..

While corporate credit remains stable, CRISIL warns that MSME and unsecured retail segments could see mild stress amid export slowdown and loan seasoning

A "structural shift" in deposit composition due to a decline in fixed deposits and lower share of current and savings accounts (Casa) balances poses challenges to banks over the medium to long term, rating agency Crisil said on Friday. This comes amid concerns in some quarters over the increased preference for capital market investments by households looking for higher yields, while others believe the shift is representative of the maturing profile of the system. "Two key trends, a decline in household contribution to term deposits and a lower Casa ratio, indicate a structural shift in deposit composition. And these may pose challenges to deposit stability and impact funding costs over the medium to long term, particularly during periods of tight liquidity," the rating agency said in a note Housheholds accounted for 60 per cent of the deposit base in March 2025 as against 64 per cent in March 2020, Crisil said, adding that besides growth in deposits, composition of the base is also

CRISIL Ratings expects operating losses of state-owned power discoms to drop to Rs 8,000-10,000 crore in FY25, helped by tariff hikes, lower purchase costs and improved efficiency

High tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods pose a major risk to the country's growth, Crisil Intelligence said in its September report. The tariffs will impact both Indian goods exports and investments, the report added. However, domestic consumption, driven by benign inflation and rate cuts, is expected to support growth, it said. The country's GDP rose to a five-quarter high of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of fiscal 2025-26, up from 7.4 per cent in the similar quarter in the previous year. Nominal GDP growth, however, slowed to 8.8 per cent from 10.8 per cent during the same period, it added. The report said consumer price index (CPI) inflation is likely to soften to 3.5 per cent in the current fiscal from 4.6 per cent in the previous year. Healthy agricultural growth is expected to keep food inflation under check, though the impact of excess rain was yet to be fully assessed. Lower crude prices and benign global commodity prices are expected to contain non

The IT companies, which had operating margins of around 22 per cent last financial year, are likely to share the incremental cost with clients

Crisil projects India pharma growth at 7-9% in FY26 as exports to regulated markets slow after a US high base while domestic sales benefit from tax cuts and launches