Overall Cargo volumes expected grow 9-11% to 3.7 MT in FY25: ICRA

The overall cargo volumes are expected to see a healthy year-on-year growth of 9-11 per cent to 3.6-3.7 million tonnes this fiscal year on the back of estimated higher domestic and international cargo volumes while the outlook on airport infrastructure is stable, Icra said on Monday.

Ratings agency Icra expects international cargo volumes to expand 11-13 per cent while the domestic cargo growth is estimated at 4-6 per cent.

The international cargo volumes saw a muted year-on-year rise of 1 per cent in the April-September period of FY24, owing to the slowdown in global economy and geo-political conflicts.

However, the international cargo volumes surged 18 per cent in the second half of the previous fiscal year, amid the Red Sea crisis, which started in October 2023, Icra said.

Consequently, the seaborne cargo traffic was impacted, which in turn benefitted international air cargo traffic, it stated.

The overall cargo volumes are expected to see a year-on-year growth of 9-11 per cent to 3.6-3.7 million tonnes this fiscal year, the ratings agency said.

"The cargo volumes were relatively less impacted due to Covid in FY21, compared to passenger traffic. Moreover, the recovery was relatively swift with cargo volumes recovering to 95 per cent of pre-Covid levels in FY22 compared to 55 per cent in passenger traffic," said Vinay Kumar G, Vice President and Sector Head for corporate ratings at Icra.

This was supported by higher growth in international cargo on account of the export of Covid-related vaccines and higher merchandise exports in FY22, he said.

While the growth in cargo volumes slowed down during the FY23 to H1 FY24 period, it has bounced back handsomely in the last 12 months, since the start of the Red Sea crisis, he said.

"The international cargo volumes have increased 18 per cent-on-year and 20 per cent during the first five months (April-August) of the ongoing fiscal and are expected to increase by a further 11-13 per cent year-on-year to touch new highs in FY2025," Kumar said.

"Icra's outlook on airport infrastructure is stable with revenues of Icra's sample set, which includes Delhi, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, and Cochin airports, likely to grow around 12-14 per cent year-on-year in FY25 supported by the sustained improvement in both domestic and international passenger traffic, increase in tariffs at some of the major airports and ramp-up in non-aeronautical revenues," he added.