Rupee ends weaker, logs worst week in 18 months on foreign outflows

The Indian rupee slipped on Friday and logged its worst week in 18 months, hurt by persistent foreign portfolio outflows and heightened dollar bids in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market.

The currency declined to an all-time low of 86.6475 earlier in the week but frequent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helped prevent sharper losses, traders said.

On the day, the rupee closed lower at 86.61 and was down 0.6% for the week, its steepest weekly fall since July 2023.

The domestic unit also logged its eleventh straight week of declines.

The rupee fell past the psychologically important 86 level this week, bogged down by a rally in the U.S. dollar and as expectations of policy changes under incoming U.S. President Donald Trump continue to cast a shadow on emerging market currencies.

Amid these headwinds, the rupee's pace of deprecation has also gathered steam, with the fall to 86 from 85 taking place in less than a month, compared to the decline to 85 from 84, which took about two months.

Foreign investors have pulled out nearly $6 billion on a net basis from local stocks and bonds so far in January, adding to the challenges that the currency is facing.

The rupee's depreciation bias is likely to persist next week, with the focus squarely on any policy changes announced by Trump, especially about trade tariffs, said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities.

Parmar reckons that the rupee may decline to 86.90 next week but the RBI is unlikely to allow a fall below that level.

The central bank is likely to use its foreign exchange reserves judiciously to mitigate domestic currency market volatility amid strong global headwinds, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums declined on Friday on the back of buy/sell swaps conducted by state-run banks, most likely on behalf of the RBI, traders said.