Exit polls predict a Congress return in Haryana, hung house in J&K

While all the exit polls predict a thumping Congress win in Haryana, most suggest a split verdict in Jammu & Kashmir

Most exit polls, which released their forecasts on Saturday evening after the polling in Haryana concluded, said the Congress was set to return to power in the state after a gap of ten years with a clear majority in the 90-member Assembly.

For Jammu and Kashmir, exit polls predicted a hung house, with the National Conference-Congress alliance likely to emerge closer to the majority mark of 46 in the 90-member legislature. The Assembly polls in J&K took place after ten years and for the first time after the repeal of Article 370 of the Constitution in August 2019.

For J&K, exit polls found that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would just about manage to retain its sway in the Jammu region, which elects 43 of the 90 MLAs, and predicted gains for smaller parties and independents, or ‘others’, and a decline in the influence of the Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
 

Haryana Assembly Elections

The Congress’ win in Haryana, if it comes about, would have implications for the farm politics in the region and also for the Centre, given the state's proximity to Delhi. Punjab, the epicentre of farm protests in 2020-21, is ruled by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which was part of the Opposition INDIA bloc in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and has been sympathetic to the farmers' cause.

The results, if exit polls turn out to be accurate, also suggest that the multipolar Haryana politics is turning into a bipolar one between the Congress and the BJP, with the Indian National Lok Dal and Jannayak Janta Party likely to have reached a point of an inexorable decline.

Most exit polls predicted a comprehensive win for the Congress in Haryana, second only to the 67 seats it won in 2005, its highest ever. Some of the other good performances of the Congress in Haryana over the decades were in the Assembly polls in 1967 and 1968, when it won 48 seats each on both occasions, 52 in 1972 and 51 in 1991. In 2019, the Congress won 31 seats, while the BJP won 40 and formed the state government in alliance with the JJP.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress, which contested nine of the ten seats, won five, and the BJP won the remaining five. The vote share of the Congress, along with its ally, AAP, was better than that of the BJP. The question in the run-up to the Assembly polls in Haryana was whether the BJP would manage to dent the Congress’ Jat-Scheduled Caste alliance and retain its support base among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Punjabis and upper castes.

As for exit polls, the India Today-CVoter survey predicted 50-58 seats for the Congress and 20-28 seats for the BJP. It predicted up to 14 seats for ‘others’, including Independents. Exit polls of Times Now, New 24 and Republic TV-PMarq had similar forecasts for Haryana.

Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections

Almost all exit polls for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections stated that no single party or pre-poll alliance would cross the majority mark of 46 in the 90-member Assembly. The India Today-CVoter exit poll was the only one to predict that the National Conference-Congress alliance could come close to breaching it, winning 40-48 seats. Others predicted a hung assembly with the NC-Congress alliance ahead of the BJP. Most exit polls suggested smaller parties and Independents could win 6-18 seats and could emerge crucial for the formation of the next government.