Edge to BJP in Madhya Pradesh, a close fight in Rajasthan: Exit polls

Most exit polls on Thursday predicted a photo finish in Rajasthan, with a couple of them suggesting that the Congress could be on the cusp of breaking a quarter-century trend of the state’s electorate throwing out the party in power, and that the party was ahead of the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana and set to return to power in Chhattisgarh.

The surprise, according to at least two exit polls, could be Madhya Pradesh (MP) where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) might secure a historic landslide and the Zoram People’s Movement, contesting its first Assembly elections, likely to cross the majority mark in Mizoram.

The counting of votes in these five states, which is also the last round of Assembly polls before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in April-May, is scheduled for Sunday.

The India Today-Axis and Today’s Chanakya exit polls predicted the return of the BJP to power in MP with over 140 seats in the 230-member Assembly, with the former estimating the rise in the BJP’s vote share to 47 per cent against the Congress’s being 41 per cent. The pollsters attributed the trend to the support the BJP is seemingly receiving from women because of the government’s Ladli Behna welfare scheme, under which it deposits a monthly allowance in the bank accounts of women. 

Among others, only ABP-C Voter was an outlier, indicating a Congress majority in the state.

In the neighbouring Rajasthan, India Today-Axis and Today’s Chanakya said the Congress could emerge the single-largest party. The Ashok Gehlot government has rolled out an array of welfare schemes as a salve for inflation with the BJP a close second. However, others indicated the BJP would secure a comfortable majority, in keeping with the trend since 1998 of no party returning to power.

In Telangana, nearly all exit polls said the Congress could upstage the BRS in a tough contest, ending its decade-long rule ever since the state was carved out of Andhra Pradesh in 2014.

India Today-Axis predicted a sweep for the ZPM in Mizoram while ABP-C Voter’s forecast was of a hung assembly with the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) and ZPM in a photo finish.

The five states -- Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram -- went to the polls from November 7 to 30.