Exit polls predict NDA win in Bihar; Phase-II sees record turnout

Exit polls project a strong lead for the NDA in Bihar, with Nitish Kumar's JDU likely to improve its seat share and women voters tilting the balance in the alliance's favour

Most exit polls on Tuesday evening predicted a comfortable victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2025 Bihar Assembly polls, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal United (JDU) set to significantly improve upon its tally of 43 seats that it secured five years ago.

 

Some of the exit polls claimed that while more men voted for the Opposition INDIA bloc, the women vote went in favour of the NDA. P-Marq, an exit poll agency, claimed 40 per cent male electors voted for the NDA against 45 per cent women voting for the alliance while 41 per cent of male voters and 39 per cent of women voters opted for the INDIA bloc.

 

The exit polls were announced after voting for phase two, the concluding phase, of the polls ended on Tuesday evening across remaining 122 of the total 243 seats. Voter turnout in this phase reached a historic high of 69 per cent, surpassing the 65.08 per cent recorded in the first phase that took place on November 6 across 121 seats. The Election Commission (EC) had then said that phase one turnout was the highest ever in Bihar’s electoral history since the first-ever election in the state took place in 1951-52. The counting of votes is on Friday.

 

The 2020 Assembly polls in Bihar were a close contest, with barely 13,000 votes separating the two principal blocs — the NDA, which now comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the JDU, and other smaller parties, and the Mahagathbandhan, or the INDIA bloc, which comprises the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, the Left parties, and others. However, the exit polls predicted that the NDA would comfortably win the 2025 edition, with the INDIA bloc coming in a distant second. 

 

The exit polls also predicted a disappointing show by election strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party in its debut outing, forcasting a range of 0-5 seats for it in the 243-member Assembly.

 

Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145-160 seats for the NDA, 73-91 for the INDIA bloc, and 0-3 for the Jan Suraaj. The Matrize Exit Poll forecast said the NDA is likely to get between 147 and 167 seats, the INDIA bloc 70 and 90 seats, and the Jan Suraaj between 0 and 2 seats. The majority mark is 122.

 

The People's Insight predicted 133-148 seats for the NDA, 87-102 for the INDIA bloc, and 0-2 for the Jan Suraaj. The People's Pulse gave 133-159 seats to the NDA, 75-101 to the INDIA bloc, and 0-5 to Kishor's party.

 

P-Marq predicted 142-162 seats for the NDA with 43 per cent vote share, 80-98 seats for the INDIA bloc with 39 per cent vote share, and 1-4 seats for the Jan Suraaj with an 8 per cent vote share. Of the NDA’s seats, it said the BJP would win 68-78 seats, the JDU 62-72, and other NDA parties 9-15 seats.

 

The BJP and the JDU have contested on 101 seats each. Other NDA parties include Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), which is contesting on 29 seats, Union minister Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Morcha, both contesting six seats each.

 

Among the INDIA bloc parties, P-Marq said the RJD would win 63-79 seats, the Congress 9-19 seats, and others 2-6 seats.

 

In the 2020 Assembly polls, the RJD emerged as the largest single party, winning 75 seats, followed by the BJP (74), the JDU (43), and the Congress (19 seats). The Communist Party of India (Marxist Leninist) Liberation had emerged as one with the best strike rate, winning 12 of the 19 seats that it had contested as part of the Mahagathbandhan.

 

Exit poll projections are made by election survey agencies based on interviews of voters as they come out after casting their votes, and are known to vary widely from the actual results.