Caste arithmetic, ex-CMs and BSP make for a riveting contest in Haridwar

With the Congress fielding ex-Uttarakhand CM Harish Rawat's son, Virendra Rawat, and BJP naming former CM Trivendra Singh Rawat from the Haridwar Lok Sabha seat, the holy city is poised to witness a close contest as it goes to voting on Friday.

For the past two elections, BJP stalwart and former Union minister (as well as ex-Uttarakhand CM) Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank has been winning the Haridwar LS seat. The Congress last won (and the only time) in 2009, when Harish Rawat himself was fielded. Incidentally, since the seat was formed in 1977, Congress has won it once, and the BJP has won it six times. On other occasions, the seat has been won by different parties.

BJP won all five seats of Uttarakhand in the 2019 elections. but its victory margin (in terms of percentage) on the Haridwar seat was the lowest. Also, despite recording a thumping majority in the 2022 Assembly polls, BJP's performance in the Haridwar district was poor when compared to its performance in the other districts of Uttarakhand. The party won only 3 of the 11 seats of the district while Congress won 5. The saffron party's district workers had reportedly blamed the infighting among the cadre for the poor performance.

Political analysts believe that Dalits and Muslims together account for almost 50% of the total population of the Parliamentary seat, and that creates a fertile ground for the Congress party. However, the BJP is aiming for a consolidation of upper castes and a large section of OBCs, apart from getting a sizeable chunk of Dalit votes. Haridwar LS seat comprises 14 Assembly seats [all 11 Assembly seats of Haridwar district and 3 Assembly seats (Doiwala, Dharampur and Rishikesh) of Dehradun district]. Experts pointed out that the constituency's urban centres like Roorkee, Rishikesh and Haridwar City favour the BJP, while semi-urban and rural areas favour the Congress as a large number of Dalits and Muslims reside in these places.  

The BSP is expected to play a major role on this seat. It has fielded Jamil Ahamad Qasmi in the hope of getting a substantial number of Muslim votes along with its core Dalit vote base. Notably, BSP has had a good presence in Haridwar district for decades now as the only two seats, which the party won in the last Uttarakhand Assembly polls, came from Haridwar district. The party has a substantial loyal vote base, especially in the rural areas of the constituency, as it has polled over 100,000 votes in the past three General elections. Experts believe that the BSP candidate has the potential to act as a roadblock for the Congress candidate and ultimately help the BJP, however, the caste-arithmetic of the seat favours the Grand Old Party.