Exit Poll Results 2024: Why do these sometimes turn out to be inaccurate?

The Lok Sabha Exit Poll Results 2024 are scheduled to be announced later today, after the final phase of polling comes to an end, around 6:30 pm. The exit poll results, or exit polls as they are commonly known, predict early indications of election results before the Election Commission announces the actual ones.

This year, the EC will announce the final results of all phases of Lok Sabha elections 2024 on Tuesday, June 4. According to EC rules, agencies can release exit polls only 30 minutes after the last vote is cast on the last day of polling.

While exit polls are watched widely and with great anticipation across the country, their accuracy has always been a topic of discussion. From psephologists to politicians, exit polls are often rejected as being inaccurate and unrealistic.

How are exit polls conducted?

The exit poll results are based on a survey of voters taken just after they leave the polling stations. This data is collected by several agencies including news channels and later collated to get an idea of the mood of the nation.

Why do some exit polls turn out to be unreliable?

Now, the primary reason behind inaccuracy in some exit poll results is the quantum of resources it demands. In a country like India, a considerable amount of money and a number of people on the ground are required to conduct the survey accurately. Moreover, these agencies also get a very short timeline for gathering the inputs, increasing the chances of inaccuracy further.

So, the accuracy changes with the scale and expertise of the agency conducting these polls.

Secondly, the sample of people chosen to take the survey may also lead to skewed results. It is difficult to select a truly dependable sample, with every constituency having its own issues and demography.

Third, the very assumption that the people would be truthful in telling their responses also increases the chances of inaccuracy in the exit polls. There is no way to verify if the person has actually voted for the candidate they say they have.  

In a 2023 column for the Deccan Herald, public policy expert Thiruvananthapuram S Ramakrishnan wrote that a quantitative survey alone makes it difficult to predict the undercurrent in an election.

"Vociferous people and party men may loudly say to whom they want to vote. But that is not the case with silent voters," they said.

Lastly, the accuracy of these exit polls is also impacted by the personal bias of the pollsters.