Assembly elections: Exit polls predict right result with wrong numbers

Matrize predicted that the Mahayuti would secure 150-170 seats, but is set to remain in power with a minimum tally of 230 seats

The vote-counting process in the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections is nearing completion, and the Election Commission of India will announce the final results soon. 

 

This time, almost all the exit polls appear to have been partially correct in their predictions regarding the election outcomes of Maharashtra, considering the ongoing trends in the results.

 

The trends indicate that in Maharashtra, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is set to remain in power with a minimum tally of 230 seats, while the Opposition Congress-led Mahavikas Aghadi Alliance (MVA) is expected to secure only approximately 55-60 seats. In this regard, the exit polls were accurate in predicting Mahayuti's victory, but underestimated the scale, as the alliance surpassed the numbers suggested by surveyors.

 

For instance, Matrize predicted that the Mahayuti would secure 150-170 seats. Similarly, P-Marq suggested a close contest between the major alliances, with the Mahayuti securing 137-157 seats. Other exit polls, including Axis My India, Times Now-JVC, and Dainik Bhaskar, predicted that the Mahayuti would win between 155-160 seats. In reality, the Mahayuti is close to securing at least 225 seats in India’s richest state. In this sense, while the exit polls were correct about the overall outcome, they significantly underestimated the scale of the victory in Maharashtra.

 

In the case of the Jharkhand elections, exit polls proved to be comparatively more inaccurate. For example, Times Now-JVC estimated 40-44 seats for the NDA and 30-40 for the INDIA bloc. ABP-Matrize predicted 42-47 seats for the NDA and 25-30 for the INDIA bloc, while People's Pulse forecasted 42-48 seats for the NDA and 16-23 for the INDIA bloc. The P-Marq exit poll suggested a slight edge for the INDIA bloc, with 37-47 seats compared to 31-40 for the NDA. On the other hand, Dainik Bhaskar indicated a close contest, giving the NDA 37-40 seats and the INDIA bloc 36-39. Notably, Axis My India stood out by predicting a strong performance for the INDIA bloc with 53 seats against 25 for the NDA, which was closer to the actual outcome.

 

However, as of the 5:30 PM trends, the INDIA bloc is set to retain power with at least 55 seats, while the BJP-led Opposition will remain in the Opposition with just 24-25 seats in the Assembly. These numbers reveal that almost all exit polls were incorrect in their predictions regarding the Jharkhand elections.