150 seats in UP, AIADMK support crucial for Modi govt to win prez polls

Around 150-seats in UP would deliver BJP 31,200 votes in the presidential electoral college

Last Updated : Mar 01 2017 | 9:36 AM IST

Currently, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nearly 3.80 lakh votes in the presidential electoral college. To reach the halfway mark of 5.49 lakh votes, the party needs another 1.7 lakh votes. The over 1 lakh votes of its alliance partners, both at the Centre and in states, reduces this gap to around 70,000 votes. This is where the Uttar Pradesh assembly, with its 403 seats and a total value 83,824 votes to the presidential electoral college, is important.

The President of India is elected by the members of an electoral college that comprises the elected members of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha and elected members of all legislative assemblies, including Delhi and Puducherry. Nominated members, whether of Parliament or legislative assemblies, are not included.

Value of vote for each of the members of the electoral college is decided based on the population census of 1971. Therefore, value of votes differs from state to state. The value of the vote of a legislator from Uttar Pradesh, the state with the largest population, is the highest at 208, while Sikkim’s is the lowest at 7.

The Modi government would hope to meet this shortfall of 70,000 votes by winning as many seats as possible in Uttar Pradesh. It would also need to compensate from UP the likely losses that the BJP and ally Shiromani Akali Dal could suffer in Punjab. A good showing in Uttar Pradesh would also deflate the Opposition and help Modi government strategists persuade fence sitters among the regional parties to vote for the ruling coalition's candidate.

Around 150-seats in UP would deliver BJP 31,200 votes in the presidential electoral college, while 100 seats would get it 20,800 seats in the electoral college.

To get the rest of the votes, the Modi government strategists can then reach out to such potential allies as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). The AIADMK has a total of 50 seats (37 in Lok Sabha and 13 in Rajya Sabha) in Parliament - a total value 35,400 votes. In addition, its 135 legislators in the Tamil Nadu assembly have a total electoral college value of 23,760.

The presidential poll, to elect the successor to incumbent Pranab Mukherjee, are due by July. Several possible successors have been talked about in the media and among party circles. These include senior leader Murli Manohar Joshi, Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, or Dalit faces like Social Justice and Empowerment Minister Thawarchand Gehlot and academician Narendra Jadhav.

But much would depend on the results to the five assembly polls – whether the Modi government can push through its nominee or forced to go for a consensus candidate.

Presidential Electoral College

Total MLAs 4120

Total value of votes of MLAs 549,474

Total MPs 776 (543 LS + 233 RS)

Total value of votes of MPs 5,49,408

(Value of each vote of MP = Total value of votes for the state total members in Parliament = 549474776 = 708)

Grand total 4896 (4120+776) = (549,474 + 5,49,408) 1,098,882

Majority in presidential election 1,098,8822 = 549,441 (+ 1)

	House (total strength)	Value of each vote	BJP seats in the House	BJP seats x value of votes = total value of BJP votes in the House	NDA allies/potential allies
	Lok Sabha 543	708	283 (including Speaker)	708 x 283 = 200,364	54 seats x 708 = 38,232
	Rajya Sabha 233	708	56	708 x 56 = 39,648	18 seats x 708 = 12,744
1	Jammu and Kashmir	72	25	72 x 25 = 1,800	PDP 28 seats x 72 = 2,016
2	Haryana	112	47	112 x 47 = 5,264	-
3	Himachal Pradesh	51	26	51 x 26 = 1,326	-
4	Delhi	58	3	58 x 3 = 174	-
5	Rajasthan	129	163	129 x 163 = 21,027	-
6	Gujarat	147	115	147 x 115 = 16,905	-
7	Maharashtra	175	122	175 x 122 = 21,350	Shiv Sena 63 seats x 175 = 11,214
8	Karnataka	131	40	131 x 40 = 5,240	-
9	Kerala	152	1	152 x 1 = 152	-
10	Tamil Nadu	176	0	0
11	Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana)	148	9	148 x 9 = 1,332	TDP 116 + TRS 63 x 148 =26,492
12	Madhya Pradesh	131	165	131 x 165 = 21,615
13	Chhattisgarh	129	49	129 x 49 = 6,321
14	Odisha	149	10	149 x 10 = 1,490
15	West Bengal	151	3	151 x 3 = 453
16	Jharkhand	176	35	176 x 35 = 6,160	5
17	Bihar	173	53	173 x 53 = 9,169	5
18	Assam	116	60	116 x 60 = 6,960	AGP 14 + BPF 12 x 116 = 3,016
19	Arunachal Pradesh	8	47	8 x 47 = 376
20	Sikkim	7	0	0	SDF 22 x 7 = 154
21	Tripura	26	0	0
22	Nagaland	9	1	9 x 1 = 9
23	Mizoram	8	0	0
24	Meghalaya	17	0	0
25	Pondicherry	16	0	0
26	Manipur*	18	0	0
27	Goa*	20	21	20 x 21 = 420
28	Uttarakhand*	64	31	64 x 31 = 1,984
29	Punjab*	116	12	116 x 12 = 1,392	SAD 56 x 116 = 6,496
30	Uttar Pradesh*	208	47	208 x 47 = 9,776
		-	-	Total BJP votes = 380,707	Total allies vote = 100,364
Grand Total				380,707 + 100,364 = 481,071

Note: Party strengths calculated according to the seat tally at the time of the latest assembly election in any given state, and does not incorporate later changes.

*Seat shares in Manipur, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are set to change after the ongoing assembly polls in these states.

Source: Election Commission of India