Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance may hurt Pakistan's food security

The treaty that was signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, brokered by the World Bank

India's Ministry of External Affairs today is believed to have held a series of meetings with officials from the ministry of Jal Shakti on the decision to keep the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance as experts weighed in on long-term impact of the move on Pakistan’s agricultural production, food security, and energy supplies.

 

The Treaty has been kept 'in abeyance in retaliation to the killing of tourists in Pahalgam just a few days back. 

Experts said that as India builds its own infrastructure on the rivers that comprise the Indus Water Basin without any obligation to meet the treaty’s requirements, it could take steps to stem the flow of water into the neighbouring country.

 

“Though an immediate cessation of water supplies might not happen as the rivers that are part of the treaty are high-flow rivers and we don’t have structures that can hold so much water just now but as and when the reservoirs gets built on (the) Indian side, it could stem the flow of water, as now it is under no obligation to follow any of the requirements of (the) Indus Waters Treaty,” a former chairman of the Central Water Commission (CWC) told Business Standard.

 

He said that while Pakistan won’t face much trouble when the rivers are in full flow, troubles may mount whenever the water levels go down. May to September are considered as high flow months when snow melts in the mountains.

 

As on April 23, water levels in two major reservoirs, which have big electricity potential attached with them, are marginally more than the dead levels (see chart). 

 

“This is mainly because post-monsoon rains in Pakistan, just as in India, were not good, so the major rivers had to depend on snow melting,” the former CWC chairman said.

 

Further, if India stops sharing information with Pakistan on the flow of the rivers as part of its decision to keep the treaty in “abeyance”, it would mean an information blackout for Pakistan regarding the rivers and their water levels.

 

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed between India and Pakistan in 1960. Brokered by the World Bank, it is regarded as one of the most durable trans-boundary water-sharing agreements in the world. 

 

The treaty divides the six rivers in the Indus Basin between two nations. According to the agreement, India has complete control over the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Pakistan received control over the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The three rivers that flow into Pakistan account for almost 80 per cent of the shared basin’s water.

 

India has the right to use water from the western rivers Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab for hydro-power generation and irrigation. According to the treaty, India cannot build any structure that diverts or impacts the downstream flow of these three rivers.

 

For Pakistan, these three rivers are virtual lifelines, which not only provide irrigation to much of its cotton and paddy but also to large sections of its horticulture production.

 

“By keeping the treaty under abeyance, India now has the freedom to build any number of projects in the three western rivers to impact its downstream flow to Pakistan,” the former CWC chairman explained.