EB-5 visa backlog grows for Indians: What is retrogression and its impact?

US Visa Bulletin April 2025: India will see a retrogression of more than two years in the EB-5 Unreserved category

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The US Department of State on Monday released the April 2025 Visa Bulletin, revealing delays for employment-based (EB) immigrant visa categories. India will see a retrogression of more than two years in the EB-5 Unreserved category, while China will face a delay of approximately two and a half years. All other countries remain current in this category.

 

But what is visa retrogression? Visa retrogression happens when the US Department of State moves priority dates backward instead of forward in the Visa Bulletin, causing delays for green card applicants. A priority date is the date when the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) receives an immigrant petition.

 

In effect, visa retrogression means applicants must wait longer before they can apply for a green card. While temporary, these delays can be extensive.

 

"For investors eyeing the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, this can mean an unexpected halt in their American dream," Varun Singh, managing director, XIPHIAS Immigration told Business Standard.

 

Why does it matter to EB-5 applicants?

 

Visa retrogression occurs when the demand for a particular visa category exceeds the supply. The US government sets an annual limit on green cards per country and category. Once the quota is exhausted, applicants from oversubscribed countries face processing delays.

 

The backlog is reflected in the Visa Bulletin, where priority dates dictate who moves forward in the queue. "When retrogression hits, applicants with later priority dates must wait until new visa numbers become available in the next financial cycle," Singh said.

 

How EB-5 investors are affected

 

The EB-5 visa requires foreign investors to invest at least $800,000 in a US business and create 10 full-time jobs. Applications have surged, particularly from India, China, and Vietnam. Given the annual cap of 10,000 EB-5 visas and per-country limits, some applicants are caught in years-long waiting periods.

 

"For Indian investors, visa retrogression has been a double-edged sword. While the EB-5 program remains a golden ticket to US residency without the employer sponsorship constraints of H-1B or L-1 visas, sudden retrogressions can stall their plans indefinitely," Singh said.

 

The US issues a limited number of immigrant visas each year. If demand surpasses the cap, even applicants who were previously eligible must wait longer.

 

Impact on green card applicants

 

Retrogression affects applicants differently depending on their location:

 

In the US: If an applicant has already applied for a green card, their application is paused until their priority date becomes current again. If they have received an Employment Authorisation Document (EAD) or Advance Parole (AP), they can continue working while waiting.

Outside the US: Applicants cannot schedule a visa interview until their priority date is current.

 

If an applicant’s priority date retrogresses, it does not mean the application is cancelled.

 

According to Singh, the real-world impact on EB-5 applicants would mean:

 

Extended wait times: A process that usually takes two years can stretch further, delaying relocation, children’s education, and financial planning.

Age-out risks for dependents: If a child turns 21 before the EB-5 petition is processed, they lose dependent status and must find alternative visa options.

Investment reconsideration: Some investors reassess whether to invest directly or through Regional Centres, depending on projected processing times.

Alternative immigration routes: Some applicants explore options in Portugal, the UAE, and Canada, which offer investor-friendly residency programmes.

 

While retrogression presents hurdles, investors are adjusting their strategies:

 

Applying early: Submitting applications sooner secures a better priority date.

Exploring reserved EB-5 categories: The US has introduced set-aside visas for rural, high-unemployment, and infrastructure projects, which may avoid backlogs.

Keeping backup options open: Some families file EB-5 petitions while also exploring EB-1 or L-1A routes for faster US entry.

 

In February 2025, US President Donald Trump announced a new residency and citizenship pathway, offering a "gold card" for a $5 million investment. While EB-5 remains a preferred route for high-net-worth individuals, some have raised concerns over whether this new option could eventually replace the programme.