What Trump's immigration crackdown means for Indian, other foreign students

What could Donald Trump’s migration crackdown mean for foreign students, including those from India? After Trump won the November election, many US universities advised international students not to stay abroad beyond January 20, his first day back in office. The concern is that stricter immigration policies could make re-entry into the US more difficult. 

 

"Based on previous experience with travel bans enacted in the first Trump administration, the Office of Global Affairs has made this advisory out of an abundance of caution," the University of Massachusetts had said. Wesleyan University and Yale University issued similar guidance.

 

University officials have reason to be cautious. In 2017, shortly after Trump’s first term began, thousands of students found themselves stranded after he issued a travel ban affecting Muslim-majority nations. More recently, foreign students faced political scrutiny from Republican lawmakers following campus protests against Israel’s war in Gaza.

 

Surjaditya Sarkar, an Indian biomedical engineering student at the University of Texas at Dallas, shared his worries with the Dallas Observer, a local weekly newspaper. Sarkar, currently on an L2 visa, fears he may face complications transitioning to an F visa when his current visa expires next year.

 

"Who's to say that by the time I turn 21, the laws around it haven’t changed?" Sarkar said.

 

"It's easy to say, ‘Oh, Trump only hates these kinds of immigrants from these places,' but it's really not that simple. It just creates an air of uncertainty," said he.

 

The L-2 visa is for the dependents (spouse and unmarried children under 21) of L-1 visa holders. F-1 visa is for full-time students enrolled in an academic programme.

 

Since returning to the White House, Trump has already called for tougher visa vetting procedures, a move expected to slow processing times in embassies and consulates. Immigration advocates were prepared for this, as it was a familiar feature of his first term. Yet, despite his rhetoric, past data suggests student visa issuances remained stable under his presidency. Experts believe the same may happen this time—some areas of immigration may face restrictions, but student visas are likely to continue at similar levels.

 

International students are the second-largest visa recipients

 

US government data from financial year 2023 shows that student visas (F visas) were the second-largest category of resident non-immigrant visas issued:

 

H visas (workers): 899,000

F visas (students): 472,000 (including F1 for students and F2 for spouses of students)

J visas (exchange visitors): 348,000

L visas (intercompany transferees): 160,000

A visas (foreign government officials): 109,000

E visas (treaty traders or investors): 71,000

USMCA visas (US-Mexico-Canada agreement representatives): 50,000

G visas (foreign organisation officials): 48,000

O visas (persons with extraordinary ability): 39,000

P visas (athletes, artists, or entertainers): 35,000

K visas (fiancé(e)s of US citizens): 23,000

 

Since 2007, the US has issued between 300,000 and 500,000 F visas annually, up from about 200,000 in the previous decade. These visas consistently account for about 20% of all resident non-immigrant visas.

 

The US hosts the world’s largest foreign student population, reaching a record 1.1 million in the 2023-24 academic year. Most come from China and India, and many secure jobs in US industries like tech and finance after graduation. As of the 2023–2024 academic year, over 331,600 Indian students are enrolled in US.

 

Student visa approval rates remained steady under Trump

 

Data covering financial years 2014 to 2023 indicates student visa approval rates fluctuated between 50% and 100% but showed no major deviations during Trump’s first term. While approval rates dipped slightly in 2017 and 2018, they rebounded in 2019. The number of issued student visas followed a similar pattern.

 

The pandemic caused a sharp drop in visa issuances, but student visas were the fastest to recover, surging over 300% from 2020 to 2023. Fanta Aw, chief executive of NAFSA: Association of International Educators, said there are economic reasons for this resilience.

 

“When you think about the US and its economy, it’s not only about the students, but who they become afterwards,” Aw to news agency Reuters. “These students become workers, researchers and leaders back home. It’s an important component of US international engagement.”

 

“Meanwhile, while they’re here, they contribute economically. That is something the US cannot afford to ignore,” she added.

 

The White House declined to comment on whether Trump’s immigration policies would include reducing the number of foreign students.

 

Foreign students contribute billions to the US economy

 

International students are a crucial revenue source for US universities and local economies. In 2023, they spent $43.8 billion on tuition, school fees, and living costs, benefiting local businesses, according to NAFSA data. However, only 12 states saw over $1 billion in economic benefits from foreign students, including Florida, where international student spending reached $1.1 billion.

 

After graduation, many students remain in the US under the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme, which allows them to work without employer sponsorship for a year, or up to three years for those in STEM fields. In 2023, the Department of Homeland Security recorded a record 222,663 post-graduate work authorisations, including 62,000 for STEM graduates. The previous peak was in 2017, Trump’s first year in office, when STEM-related authorisations surged 54.3%.

 

Post-graduate work authorisations reached a record high in 2023

 

< STEM graduates made up a growing share of work authorisations

< Approvals rose steadily from 2008 to 2016, peaking between 2017 and 2019

< A decline occurred in 2020 and 2021, likely due to the pandemic

< Numbers rebounded in 2022 and hit a new peak in 2023

< The trend suggests strong demand for post-study work opportunities

 

“There is a massive shortage of people in STEM fields. International students help fill that demand,” Aw said. A report by the National Science Board found that one in five people in STEM jobs in 2021 were foreign-born, as the US does not produce enough graduates in these fields.

 

Immigration restrictions could cause delays

 

While demand for foreign students remains high, tighter immigration rules could mean more paperwork, requests for evidence, and longer visa processing times. In Trump’s first term, processing times for work permits steadily increased until the pandemic caused a backlog.

 

Median processing time for work permits

2016: 2 months

2019: over 3 months

2022 (pandemic backlog peak): over 4 months

2024: Still above pre-2020 levels

 

“They’re going to throw sand in gears,” said Leslie Dellon, senior attorney at the American Immigration Council. Processing times for work permits may also face scrutiny, as Republican lawmakers question whether foreign workers take jobs from Americans. In December, some Republicans criticised companies hiring foreign workers through work visas, prompting pushback from tech billionaire Elon Musk. Trump has previously said he supports the H-1B visa, the most common work visa.

 

Many international students transition to work visas

 

US government data shows that from 2008 to 2018, 84% of student visa holders who stayed in the US transitioned to H-1B visas, which require employer sponsorship. During this period:

 

352,000 former F1 visa holders secured H-1B visas

25,000 obtained other employment-based visas

42,000 moved to different visa categories

 

Beyond logistical barriers, Migration Policy Institute, said some students may rethink studying in the US due to an increasingly “unfriendly” political climate.

 

However, a steep decline in foreign student numbers seems unlikely.

 

“The reasons that people come to the United States, the economic and educational opportunities we have here, are still so strong,” Gelatt said. “As long as the US is relatively stable with a strong economy, I think people will want to continue to come.”

 

"Universities will make every legal effort to protect their students, as they have a philosophical and financial stake in doing so, but it is prudent to anticipate a period of potentially very unpleasant disruption while Trump and universities come to an understanding," said Russell A Stamets, Partner at Circle of Counsels.

 

"Worry is warranted, action is essential, and hope is reasonable that foreign students will be able to continue their education in the United States," he said.