Migration to push UK population to 72.5 mn by 2032: Why it may hit Indians

The United Kingdom's (UK) population is projected to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), an upward revision of more than 100,000 people. The change is likely to increase pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to tighten immigration policies. Moreover, it is likely to impact Indians seeking to move to the UK for work and residency.

 

The ONS expects the population to grow by 4.9 million between mid-2022 and mid-2032, driven entirely by net migration, as births and deaths are forecast to balance out.

 

Migration trends and population growth

 

The ONS projects net migration to settle at 340,000 per year from 2027-28, up from previous estimates of 315,000.

Revised estimates show UK net migration reached 906,000 in the year to June 2023, with a slight fall to 728,000 in the year to June 2024.

England is projected to see the highest population growth at 7.8%, followed by Wales at 5.9%, Scotland at 4.4%, and Northern Ireland at 2.1%.

 

Estimated and projected UK population:

 

2022:

UK: 67.6 million

England: 57.1 million

Wales: 3.1 million

Scotland: 5.4 million

Northern Ireland: 1.9 million

 

2027:

UK: 70.9 million

England: 60.0 million

Wales: 3.3 million

Scotland: 5.6 million

Northern Ireland: 1.9 million

 

2032:

UK: 72.5 million

England: 61.6 million

Wales: 3.3 million

Scotland: 5.7 million

Northern Ireland: 2.0 million

 

2037:

UK: 74.0 million

England: 62.9 million

Wales: 3.4 million

Scotland: 5.7 million

Northern Ireland: 1.9 million

 

2042:

UK: 75.3 million

England: 64.2 million

Wales: 3.4 million

Scotland: 5.8 million

Northern Ireland: 1.9 million

 

2047:

UK: 76.6 million

England: 65.4 million

Wales: 3.5 million

Scotland: 5.8 million

Northern Ireland: 1.9 million

 

Over the decade from mid-2022 to mid-2032, the ONS estimates:

 

< 9,914,000 people will migrate long-term to the UK.

< 4,978,000 people will emigrate long-term from the UK.

 

Migration numbers a pain for the UK govt

 

Starmer is facing increasing calls to curb immigration, particularly after protests in the summer of 2024 escalated into violence targeting asylum seeker accommodation. The previous Conservative government introduced restrictions on dependents for students and care workers, while the current Labour government has pledged to crack down on illegal employers and people-smuggling gangs.

 

Chris Philp, the Conservative shadow home secretary, called the ONS figures "shocking and unacceptable" and said: "We need a binding legal cap on visas issued each year which is very, very substantially lower than this in order to get the numbers down and under control."

 

Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party leader, has admitted past immigration policies were too lax. "We got it wrong in the past," she said, adding that the country must invest in automation and reskilling British workers rather than relying on "mass low-skilled migration."

 

However, reducing migration could prove difficult in key sectors. The UK granted 50,591 health and social care visas in the year to September 2024, underlining continued reliance on foreign workers.

 

Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, told Bloomberg: "In practice, the areas where policy changes are most feasible are skilled work visas, the care worker route, international students, and humanitarian visas. Policy changes in all of these areas come with trade-offs — for example, restricting the care route would probably have a sizable impact on net migration but would require the government to work out how to fund the care sector enough to attract workers into it."

 

Economic impact

 

The population revision may provide some economic relief for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is under pressure to balance the budget without further tax rises or spending cuts.

 

Higher migration could expand the workforce, boosting tax revenues and economic output.

  The Resolution Foundation estimated that an extra 400,000 working-age people by 2029-30 could reduce government borrowing by £5 billion.

  GDP could rise by 0.3%, or £12 billion a year, according to the think-tank.

 

The ONS also noted that a fall in birth rates could ease pressure on public services, as children are high users of healthcare and education. The Office for Budget Responsibility is set to factor these trends into its economic forecasts in March.

 

Uncertain future projections

 

The ONS acknowledged that migration forecasts remain "inherently uncertain and complex." It also set out alternative projections:

 

A high migration scenario where net migration levels off at 525,000 per year.

A low migration scenario where it stabilises at 120,000 per year.

 

While migration remains a major public concern, the ONS pointed out that an ageing population will also put strain on government spending. The number of people at state pension age is projected to rise by 1.7 million by mid-2032 to 13.7 million.

 

The UK is expected to see 17,000 more deaths than births over the next decade.

Births are expected to exceed deaths between mid-2024 and mid-2028, but the trend is expected to reverse from mid-2029.

 

Impact on Indian migration

 

The figures could raise concerns for Indian nationals who have been moving to the UK for work, as tighter visa rules may be introduced.

 

< As of the 2021 Census, 1.9 million people in the UK identified as Indian, making up 3.1% of the population.

< Indian nationals have consistently received the largest share of UK work visas. In the year ending June 2024, 160,676 work visas were issued to Indian workers.