Climate analysts weigh whether 2026 will turn out to be an El Nino year

With early models hinting at an evolving El Nino around India's monsoon onset, forecasters warn that 2026 rainfall may hinge on how the climate crosses the spring uncertainty barrier

As the world enters 2026, there is a growing interest among meteorologists and climate watchers on whether 2026 will turn out to be a full blown or evolving El Nino year, something which has consequences for India’s monsoon and also agricultural production and general economic growth.

 

Though, it is still very early days and any prediction made six months in advance has a greater chance of getting wrong and also unless the “spring barrier” is passed, nothing can be said with certainty. But some sections of world meteorologists have started predicting an “evolving” El Nino around May and June 2026, which is just when the Indian monsoon starts gathering steam.

 

According to the World Climate Service, “Spring Barrier” is often used to highlight the uncertainty in the outlook for ENSO (the El Niño - Southern Oscillation) in the first half of the year, and it conveys the general idea that ENSO forecasts are intrinsically more uncertain, or less skilful, in connection with Northern Hemisphere spring.

 

El Nino not only causes “below normal” monsoon rains in India but also can sometimes lead to long breaks within the four month June to September season.

 

Also, all El Nino induced cumulative all India “below normal” monsoon does not have a direct role in impacting farm production if temporal and spatial distribution of the rains is good.  

 

The last time El Nino had some impact on the Indian monsoon was in 2018 which was negated by “neutral” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

 

For now, big global weather forecasting agencies such as Australian Weather Bureau or the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in their December updates have just predicted La Niña to persist for the next month or two, with a 68 per cent chance of it transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions most likely in January-March 2026.

 

But, some models studied by specialised weather forecasting resources such as Severe Weather Europe, which is an online resource for weather forecasts, outlooks, long-range trends based on the latest forecast data show that an El Niño is likely to return in 2026, strengthening in the second half of the year and lasting through the 2026 and 2027 season.

 

“If it develops, El Niño can reshape global weather patterns, with a strong influence expected over the United States and Canada during the next winter season,” Severe Weather said in its last update.

 

India’s state-run IMD in its last forecast made in November said that most global models favour La Niña to persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26 (Dec-Feb) before transitioning to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2026.

 

IMD is expected to come up with another monthly forecast tomorrow where it could throw more light on the condition of El Nino in 2026.

 

“More than a full-blown El Nino, what is more worrisome is an evolving El Nino which has a 60 per cent chance of causing ‘below-normal’ rains,” Jatin Singh, managing director of private weather forecasting agency, Skymet said.  El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of sea surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean while La Nina is just the opposite and refers to unusual cooling of surface temperatures.