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El Nino
The IMF on Thursday said the impact of weather events such as the Super El Nino was yet to materialise for India, which remains the engine of growth for the world economy. The IMF listed lower crop yields, increased food price inflation and its impact on the purchasing power of households in India due to the Super El Nino. "So these are risks that we see that India faces, but right now those risks have not materialised," IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack told a press conference here. She said the IMF will reassess India's growth projections in the January World Economic Outlook update after the risks posed by the weather event materialise. Earlier this month, the IMF raised India's growth forecast for fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028 to 7 per cent, from the 6.4 per cent and 6.7 per cent projections respectively made in July. "So, we see it really as a risk going forward, and of course depending on whether that risk materialises, we will reassess our growth projections
The upcoming rabi (winter) season is likely to be challenging for rainfed areas due to the El Nino weather pattern, and foodgrain production could be affected, Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra said on Monday. Addressing a two-day national conference on preparedness for the rabi season, Chandra said the kharif season was also very challenging, particularly in rainfed areas. Several States struggled first to achieve crop coverage and later to ensure that the crops survived. Sowing of rabi crops such as wheat and mustard begins in October. "We are seeing that in the coming season, production is likely to be affected to a large extent. And the rabi season will also be challenging for the rainfed areas," he said. Chandra said some states could face the problem of excess soil moisture, while areas with deficient rainfall may see prolonged periods of stress. Strategies need to be calibrated accordingly for the rabi season, he added. Calling climate change a reality, he said even irri
The El Nino weather pattern is strengthening and is likely to become "very strong" in late 2026 and early 2027, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University said, raising concerns over elevated climate risk for India. In its latest ENSO forecast, published on September 21, the IRI said the Nino 3.4 index, a key gauge of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached +3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September. All 22 models it surveyed, 13 dynamical and nine statistical, forecast "very strong" El Nino conditions through the 2026-27 winter. The IRI put the probability of El Nino at 100 per cent through February 2027, falling to 61 per cent by mid-2027. It said the event could rank among the strongest on record. The institute also expects the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to become strongly positive from September through December 2026 before returning toward neutral conditions in early 2027. A positive IOD often occurs alongside El Nino, though the two can ..
The University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute's report that claimed that the 'super El Nino' might cause around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India over the next six months, was measured using two components, seasonal temperature forecasts, and temperature-mortality relationships, a co-author of the study said. Emily Grover-Kopec, a co-author, told PTI that temperature-mortality relationships were assessed using "one of the most commonly referenced seasonal forecasts" from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5). The recently published report claimed that the climate phenomenon could push global land temperatures 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, resembling the higher temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver in the next 20 years. "When considering a wide suite of seasonal forecasts that are available, the ECMWF SEAS sits in the middle in terms of the projected temperature anomalies, so this presents a