India could experience above-normal rainfall in July, says IMD chief

The country recorded below-normal rainfall in June, with the deficit standing at 11 per cent, said IMD

India recorded below-normal rainfall in June, with the deficit standing at 11 per cent, the highest in five years, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

According to the IMD data, the country received 147.2 mm of rainfall against a normal of 165.3 mm for the month, the seventh lowest since 2001.

June rainfall accounts for 15 per cent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.

After making an early onset over Kerala and the northeastern region on May 30, and progressing normally up to Maharashtra, the monsoon lost momentum, extending the wait for rains in West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, and worsening the impact of a scorching heat wave in northwest India.
 

"The country recorded 16 days of below-normal rainfall activity -- from June 11 to June 27 -- which led to overall below-normal precipitation," IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

The IMD reported that northwest India recorded a 33 per cent rainfall deficit, central India a 14 per cent deficit, and east and northeast India a 13 per cent deficit. Only south India recorded surplus rains (14 per cent) in June.

The Met office stated that 12 per cent of the sub-divisional area of the country experienced excess to large excess rainfall, 38 per cent received normal rainfall, and 50 per cent experienced deficient to large deficient rainfall.

IMD data shows that in 20 out of the 25 years when June rainfall was below normal (less than 92 per cent of the long-period average), July rainfall was normal (94-106 per cent of LPA) or above normal.

In 17 of the 25 years when June rainfall was below normal, the seasonal rainfall was normal or above normal, it said.

Northwest India records warmest June since 1901

Northwest India recorded its warmest June last month since 1901, with a mean temperature of 31.73 degrees Celsius, the IMD chief added.

The monthly average maximum temperature in the region settled at 38.02 degrees Celsius, 1.96 degrees Celsius above normal. The average minimum temperature stood at 25.44 degrees Celsius, 1.35 degrees Celsius above normal, according to IMD data.

Northwest India recorded a mean temperature of 31.73 degrees Celsius in June, 1.65 degrees Celsius above normal and the highest since 1901, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

Northeast India recorded a 33 per cent rainfall deficit in June, which Mohapatra attributed to the sluggish advance of the monsoon over the northern and eastern parts of the country due to the lack of weather systems.

"Only one low-pressure area developed towards the end of June. Normally, we get three low-pressure systems. The Madden-Julian Oscillation was not favourable, and therefore, we could not get enhanced convection and low-pressure systems," he said.

The absence of active western disturbances, mainly during the June 10 to June 19 period, was also a reason for the longer dry spell and heat wave prevailing over northwest and central India.

He said only three western disturbances, against a normal of four to five, were observed across north India (June 5-10, June 19-25, and June 26-28).

India may experience above-normal rainfall in July

India could experience above-normal rainfall in July, except for parts of the northeastern region, the IMD chief Mohapatra added.

Addressing a virtual press conference, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said July rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal -- more than 106 per cent of the long-period average of 28.04 cm.

"Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many parts of northeast India and some parts of northwest, east, and southeast peninsular India," he said.

The Met office said maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of northwest India and south peninsular India, except the west coast.

"Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over many parts of central India, east and northeast India, and along the west coast," it said.

The minimum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over many parts of the country except some parts of northwest and the adjoining areas of central India, and some pockets of southeastern peninsular India, he said.

We are expecting good monsoon rains in July. Cloudy conditions generally result in higher minimum temperatures, Mohapatra said.

Northwest India recorded its warmest June last month since 1901, with a mean temperature of 31.73 degrees Celsius, the IMD said on Monday.

The monthly average maximum temperature in the region settled at 38.02 degrees Celsius, 1.96 degrees Celsius above normal. The average minimum temperature stood at 25.44 degrees Celsius, 1.35 degrees Celsius above normal, according to IMD data.

Northwest India recorded a mean temperature of 31.73 degrees Celsius in June, 1.65 degrees Celsius above normal and the highest since 1901, the IMD chief said.