India to record above-normal rainfall in August and September, predicts IMD

September may get more rain than August; monsoon poised for a break from August 8

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said the monsoon during the remaining two months of the season (August-September) on average is expected to be ‘above-normal’ with September poised to get more rain than August.

August is expected to be ‘normal’ despite a break in showers expected from August 8.

The forecast assumes significance as ‘more than normal’ rains in September, the last month of the four-month season may hurt the standing kharif crops depending on their stage of maturity.

"The IMD has indicated a high likelihood of above-normal monsoon activity for August and September in the country. However, it will be interesting to observe the weather patterns towards the end of September and early October, which coincide with the harvesting phase for rainfed kharif crops,” Vishwas Chitale, senior programme lead, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) told Business Standard.

According to a study published earlier this year by the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), over 48 per cent of tehsils or sub-districts in India experienced more than a 10 per cent increase in October rainfall in the last decade (2012-2022) compared to the previous three months due to the delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon,” Chitale said.

He added that additionally, the IMD has forecasted above-normal daytime and nighttime temperatures across most of the country in August, which could affect the growth phases of various crops.

“To adapt, we must reconsider our cropping calendars and make them climate-smart by incorporating these microclimatic changes in rainfall and temperature patterns across states and districts," Chitale said.

The Met said the chance of La Nina, which is considered favourable for Indian monsoon developing later this month has boosted the prospects in August and September.

La Nina is expected to continue till the end of 2024. That apart, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is another factor that influences the monsoon is expected to be ‘neutral’ till the end of the monsoon season.

Rainfall over India in August and September would be 106 per cent of the long-period average of 422.8 mm, it said.

India has so far recorded 453.8 mm against the normal of 445.8 mm since June 1, a surplus of two per cent, owing to a surplus in July.

IMD chief defends rainfall warning in Kerala

IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the agency had issued regular forecasts for significant rainfall activity along the west coast of India and a red alert for Kerala on July 30, the day Wayanad district was hit by landslides.