Kim Jong Un's China trip signals shifting dynamics in nuclear diplomacy

For Kim, the visit will mark his debut on a multilateral diplomatic stage since taking power 14 years ago, showing his confidence backed by the partnership with Russia and his growing nuclear arsenal

By Soo-Hyang Choi

  Just days after US President Donald Trump said he’d like to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Pyongyang responded in its own way, by announcing Kim’s trip to join Russian President Vladimir Putin at China’s military parade. 

Kim’s attendance at the Sept. 3 Victory Day celebrations, standing alongside some of the world’s most powerful leaders, will send a clear message to the US and its allies that it’s no longer the same North Korea they faced years ago when Trump and Kim met in person for nuclear talks. 

For Kim, the visit will mark his debut on a multilateral diplomatic stage since taking power 14 years ago, underscoring his confidence backed by the burgeoning partnership with Russia and his growing nuclear arsenal. The last time a North Korean leader appeared at a military parade in China was in 1959.  

 

“Xi will see this as an opportunity to re-engage with Kim after an extended period of arm’s-length treatment,” said Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

 

“Xi may be more gracious than usual with Kim for this purpose,” Cha said, adding that such a gesture would put Kim in a position of “two powers vying for his favor.” 

 

Kim has emerged as a key ally of Putin and his war against Ukraine, helping boost Moscow’s fighting presence on the ground by providing troops. The alliance has also triggered concerns over North Korea’s increased ability to strengthen its military and sustain its regime through Russian backing.

 

Speaking alongside Trump this week, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said North Korea has been accelerating its nuclear capabilities in the past years as he urged the US president to engage with Pyongyang. “The only person that can make progress on this issue is you, Mr. President,” Lee told Trump during their first summit meeting on Monday.   

 

North Korea has been dismissing any efforts by Lee to improve ties between the two Koreas but kept the door slightly open for dialogue with the US, saying the personal relationship between Trump and Kim is “not bad.” 

 

Still, after the disappointment experienced when negotiations with the US collapsed in 2019, Kim is less likely to move toward engagement when US concessions are unclear. North Korea lambasted Lee on Wednesday after he urged efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, calling the idea a “naive dream.”  

 

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said it hoped relations between North Korea and China would develop in a way that contributes to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Amid concerns Seoul could be sidelined in regional diplomacy with Pyongyang - potentially undermining South Korea’s security interests — the ministry said it was aware of Kim’s plan to visit China before the announcement.  

 

“While history suggests that such visits often precede renewed engagement with the US, this visit seems to serve less as a prelude to dialogue than a signal that Kim can rally powerful partners and force Washington to play on his terms,” Bloomberg Economics’ Adam Farrar and Hyosung Kwon said, referring to recent remarks by Trump and Lee signaling openness to dialogue. 

 

“In the end, it’s North Korean leader Kim Jong Un — not either president — who will decide whether to rejoin talks.”