Six of the past 15 El Nino years have had normal monsoons, says IMD

Asserts that southwest monsoon in 2023 is likely to be normal despite El Nino, as two other factors will neutralise its negative impact

The IMD on Tuesday said that the southwest monsoon in 2023 is expected to be normal despite the emergence of the El Nino weather phenomenon.

This is because two other factors, namely the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the low snow cover over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere during spring and winter, which has an inverse correlation with Indian monsoon, will neutralise the negative impact of El Nino.

The met added that the emergence of El Nino doesn't necessarily mean that rains would be below normal this year. This is because in the past there have been 15 El Nino years between 1951 and 2022. In six, or 40 per cent of these years, monsoon was normal to above normal despite El Nino.

The last of these years was 1997 when despite a ‘strong’ El Nino, the southwest Monsoon between June and September was 102 per cent of the LPA. Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal in meteorological terms.