State scan: A sounding board for 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh

Vigorous campaigning is on in the state for the coming municipal elections, with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath leading the charge for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Last week he was in Agra, Mathura, and Vrindavan. Addressing a rally in Agra, 
 

he said: “Agra will soon have a metro train. A hundred electric buses are in service in the city. The Agra Municipal Corporation has increased the area under its coverage after 37 years, since there is no shortage of finance in the AMRUT (Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation) scheme under the BJP’s twin-engine government.”
 

The UP civic polls, which political pundits have likened to a proverbial semifinal ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, will be held in two phases, on May 4 and 11, before counting on May 13.
 

This will be the last round of polls in the state before the general elections. According to the UP State Election Commission, more than 43 million voters will vote to elect representatives to 14,864 posts, spanning 760 local bodies spread over 75 districts in the state.
 

While voting for mayors and 1,420 corporators will take place through the electronic voting machine (EVM), polling for the remaining posts for nagar palika parishads and nagar panchayats will be on ballot paper.
 

The 760 local bodies in UP comprise 17 municipal corporations, 199 nagar palika parishads, and 544 nagar panchayats. Apart from the mayors/corporators of the municipal corporations and panchayat entities’ chairpersons, voters will elect 5,327 (of the nagar panchayats) and 7,177 members (of the nagar palika parishads).
 

These local polls serve the purpose of reinvigorating the rank and file of political parties and enabling them to take corrective measures before big contests. Since the last UP urban civic polls in 2017, the number of bodies has gone up commensurate with rising population and rapid urbanisation.
 

In the 2017 UP urban local body polls, the ruling BJP had wrested 14 of the 16 mayoral seats (then), while the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) emerged victorious in Aligarh and Meerut.
 

The Shahjahanpur Municipal Corporation was formed in 2018. It will witness polling for the first time on May 11.
 

The BJP had in 2017 had won 47 posts of nagar palika parishad chairperson, the Samajwadi Party (SP) 29, the BSP 18 and Congress five, while the remaining seats were scooped up by rebel and independent candidates.
 

In the polls to the lowest tier, nagar panchayat chairperson, BJP nominees emerged victorious in 81 seats, followed by the SP in 67, the BSP in 34, and the Congress in 15. The rest were accounted for by independents or candidates fielded by smaller outfits.
 

Meanwhile, turncoats are having a field day with the BJP gaining an upper hand in attracting leaders from rival camps. Archana Verma, the SP’s choice for the mayor’s post in the Shahjahanpur Municipal Corporation, defected to the BJP.
 

In an apparent change of tack, the BJP has given the ticket to Muslim candidates, especially in areas where the community is predominant, to challenge the traditional strongholds of the SP. The BSP is testing its textbook formula of combining Dalit and minority votes.
 

Whereas all the political parties in the fray are claiming a head start, the top leaders of the Opposition outfits have so far shied away from canvassing.
 

Talking to Business Standard, UP BJP Secretary Chandra Mohan said: “The law and order template of UP is being talked about and replicated in other states. Time and again, the people have affirmed faith in the BJP government, and the party is confident that the voters will again shower their blessings on the party in the urban local body polls.”
 

Political analyst A P Tiwari said political parties were making all-out efforts to consolidate their vote banks.
 

“The outcome of these polls is of paramount importance owing to their effectiveness in impacting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections … current reckonings give an edge to the ruling party over others.”
 

Meanwhile, the Opposition is harping on a host of issues to appeal to urban voters. These include the promises of cleaner cities, rebate in house and water tax, and better civic amenities, while the BJP is reminding voters of the advantage of a “triple-engine” government to deliver the goods in the long run.
 

Senior UP Congress leader Devendra Pratap Singh said the party was fighting these polls with full vigour. “People are fed up with BJP misrule. The Congress has been strong in urban constituencies and we will make a comeback this time round.”