A below-par monsoon could imperil Bihar's agri sector, Assembly elections

If rainfall is below average this year, too, it would mark it as the fourth consecutive year that the agriculturally important state would get lesser rains from the Southwest monsoon

Last week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first official forecast for the 2025 monsoon season, saying almost all parts of the country are expected to above-average rains this year.

 

However, the parts that it identified as those which could get below normal rains included North-East India, Tamil Nadu, parts of the Himalayan regions, and Bihar. Among these, Bihar and Tamil Nadu are agriculturally important regions. In the case of Tamil Nadu, IMD officials explained that it has a fallback option in the form of the North-East monsoon season that starts from October.

 

In fact, Tamil Nadu gets the bulk of its rainfall in the October to December period, but for the past few years, it has had the added benefit of some rains from the Southwest monsoon.

 

“Of late, it has been receiving some rains during the South-West monsoon season as well, which we feel won’t be there in 2025,” a senior IMD official explained.

 

This leaves Bihar among the big states which could stare at a ‘below-normal’ monsoon season as per the first forecast of IMD. Though, this may be revised in subsequent months, if Bihar once again receives below par rains this year, this would make 2025 the fourth consecutive year running when the state will get less than average rainfall during the monsoon months.

 

As per IMD data, the last time Bihar received more than average rainfall was in 2021, when the state received 3 per cent more than normal rains.

 

Subsequently, in 2022, the southwest monsoon was almost 31 per cent lower than normal, 23 per cent deficient in 2023, and 19 per cent below normal in 2024. Naturally, the 2025 monsoon is critical to Bihar’s economy in more than one way.

 

Accounting for almost 6 per cent of India’s annual cereals production as of 2021-22, almost an equal proportion in rice output, and a more than 8 per cent share in India’s annual maize production, Bihar holds an important place in the country’s farming landscape.

 

More than anything else, it is the disproportionately large segment of its population that is dependent on farming that makes agriculture the backbone of the state’s economy as well as politics.

 

Some reports estimate that as much as 77 per cent of Bihar’s population is engaged in agriculture and that the sector contributes more than 24 per cent to the state’s GDP, which is significantly higher than the national average.

 

Also, agriculture is dominated by small and marginal farmers that also makes a good monsoon a critical element in the farming cycle. For example, data shows that as of 2022-23, Bihar’s share of consumption of electricity for agricultural purposes was around 12.45 per cent, while the national average was close to 19.29 per cent.

 

Its per hectare consumption of fertiliser as of 2021-22 was around 159.08 kg, much higher than the national average of about 128 kg (three nutrients, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium have been considered for this).

 

However, in terms of crop yields, Bihar’s per hectare yield of rice and wheat were lower than the national average at 2529 kg and 3080 kg respectively (as per the second advance estimates of 2024-25).

 

But when it comes to maize, Bihar’s per hectare yield far surpassed the national average at 5,980 kgs while the national average lags way behind at only 3,472 kgs.

 

In fact, Bihar's per hectare yield for maize has seen the fastest increase over the past few years - between 2018-19 and 2024-25, it has seen a sharp 61.27 per cent jump in yield.

 

Another factor that also goes in its favour is Bihar's high irrigation coverage. Data shows that in 2022-23, almost 78.4 per cent of the area for principal crops in the state was under irrigation. Nationally, during the same period, it was around 56 per cent. Between 2018-19 and 2022-23, area under principal crops in Bihar under irrigation has gone up from 74.2 per cent to 78.2 per cent.

 

Between the two, that is, higher maize yield and higher area under irrigation in principal crops, perhaps lies Bihar’s strategy to face another year of likely ‘below par’ monsoons, since maize consumes the least amount of water among all major cereals.

Monsoon and Bihar elections

The forecast of another year of ‘below normal’ monsoon could not have come at a worse time for Bihar. The state is scheduled to hold Assembly elections some time around October, just when the impact of southwest monsoon would start getting felt in the hinterland. It will also coincide with the major festive season in north India.

 

If crops fail and input costs goes up for farmers, it would put an additional burden on the state government to mitigate their suffering. For the opposition, it could become a major electoral plank.

 

Given the state's dependence on farming and monsoons, lower-than-normal rains could also put pressure on the government to announce relief measures for farmers. The state could look for special subsidies for farmers to enable them to undertake additional irrigation if monsoons fail.

 

A friendly government in the Centre could also step in with sharing some of the subsidy burden. Other relief measures could also be announced if the rains remain below par.

The southwest monsoon’s changing track

It is not that below-par monsoon in Bihar and North-East India is a one-off phenomenon. Some meteorologists say that with each passing year, the axis of several monsoon troughs that originate in the Bay of Bengal during the June to September months are bypassing parts of eastern India and reaching Central India directly.

 

“This is because the Low Pressure Areas (LPA) that are created in the Bay of Bengal are increasingly moving in a westerly direction as against North-Westerly direction which is causing this shift in axis of monsoon trough,” explains Mahesh Palawat, vice president (meteorology and climate change) at Skymet Weather services.

 

He said scientists have observed this trend since the last 7-8 years, but can't conclusively say that it is due to climate change.

 

Nonetheless, with monsoons once again threatening to remain weak in an agriculturally important part of India, a new strategy to address the fresh challenge is perhaps needed.