India braces for warmer Feb, wheat crop, rapeseed output may be at risk

India is set to see above-average temperatures in February, with key wheat- and rapeseed-growing states likely to see maximum temperatures up to 5 degrees Celsius above average on some days in a risk to crops, two weather bureau sources said.

As the world's second biggest wheat producer, India is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports, following three straight years of poor crop yields since 2022.

After a sharp, sudden rise in temperatures in February and March shrivelled the crop, India, also the world's second-biggest wheat consumer, was forced to ban exports of the staple in 2022.

Higher temperatures during the grain formation stage could reduce yields for the fourth straight year, trimming overall production and forcing authorities to lower or remove the 40% import tax to facilitate imports to tide over shortages.

Maximum and minimum temperatures in northern, central, and eastern states are likely to be above normal in February, said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department, who did not wish to be identified ahead of the official announcement from the weather office.

The weather office is likely to issue its forecast for February on Friday.

"On a few days of February, maximum temperatures could rise 5 degrees Celsius above average in some states," the official said.

India's Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh states in the north, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, form the country's top wheat-growing regions.

"In the second half of February, daytime temperatures in the northern and northwestern parts of the country could see a sharp rise," said another IMD official.

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

"If temperatures remain higher than normal for a prolonged period, it can negatively impact yields by creating moisture stress," said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, a Mumbai-based brokerage.

Hot and unseasonably warm weather leads to lower production and sharp drawdowns in state reserves.

As a result, wheat prices hit a record 33,250 rupees ($384.05) per metric ton earlier this month.

Any drop in the rapeseed crop could force India, the world's biggest vegetable oil importer, to step up its cooking oil imports, said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trade house.

The area under rapeseed, the country's main oilseed crop, is already down from last year.