India likely to export 24 million tonnes rice in 2025-26, says USDA

USDA said rice production in India for 2025 is forecast at a 10th consecutive record, but the increase will be moderated by a decline in harvested area

India is likely to  export around 24 million tonnes of rice in the 2025-26 marketing year, thus cornering around 40 per cent of the market share, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 

The USDA follows a marketing year, which starts in October and ends in September, unlike the Indian financial year that runs from April to March. 

Though the US agency did not explicitly say so, the optimism about India’s rice exports in 2025-26 came against the backdrop of bulging foodgrain stocks which as on April 27 were estimated to be almost 66.16 million tonnes (wheat and rice) as against the annual public distribution system (PDS) requirement of 60 million tonnes. 

On top of that, a strong monsoon as predicted by India Meteorological Department (IMD) in 2025 would further assist paddy planting. 

Rice production in the 2024-25 main Kharif sowing season was estimated at 121 million tonnes, almost 7 per cent more than in the same season last year.  

India would see record rice production for a record 10 consecutive time, the report said, adding the increase would be moderated by a decline in harvested area. 

India’s big bang rice export push in 2025-26 and competitive pricing would not only push it on top of the heap in global rice markets, but will also limit exports by other major rice exporters from Asia, the report said. 

India has been a leading exporter of rice for years owing to abundant domestic supplies and competitive pricing. However, exports dropped after curbs were first imposed in 2022 to keep domestic prices in check. The curbs, which were imposed in response to soaring global prices and to control domestic prices, were progressively tightened on all varieties of rice before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. It imposed a minimum export price on basmati rice, banned export of non-basmati white rice, imposed a 20 per cent duty on parboiled rice and altogether stopped export of broken rice. 

However, with rice production bouncing back on the back of good monsoon rains and easing of global markets, the government has progressively lifted almost all the curbs of rice exports since September 2024.

 

The last was the curb on export of 100 per cent broken rice, which was lifted in March 2025. India exported 3.9 million metric tons of broken rice in 2022, mainly to China, for animal feed and to African countries like Senegal and Djibouti for human consumption.

 

Broken rice is a by-product of milling, and African countries prefer this grade because it is cheaper than other grades.